Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Actor, Actress
Richard Jenkins, Hiam Abbass in The Visitor
BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)
- Clint Eastwood becomes a sentimental favorite whenever he has a Message to convey;
- Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke have been winning awards left and right;
- Frank Langella will get his first Oscar nod (a sort of career achievement recognition, like James Garner’s — well-deserved — nomination for Murphy’s Romance back in 1985);
- and so will SAG nominee Richard Jenkins.
Runners-up: Unless Dev Patel pulls off a Keisha Castle-Hughes upset (she was pushed as a supporting player for Whale Rider in 2003, but landed a — truly surprising — best actress nod instead), the five nominees should be the names listed above.
Brad Pitt also has a chance for his reverse-aging character in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, but Academy members may (rightly?) feel that Pitt’s SAG nomination and the fact that he’s Angelina Jolie’s significant other are more than enough rewards for him.
A third possibility is Leonardo DiCaprio for his unhappy husband in Revolutionary Road.
Long shots: Dustin Hoffman (Last Chance Harvey), Robert Downey Jr. (Iron Man).
Sally Hawkins in Happy-Go-Lucky
BEST ACTRESS
Anne Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
Melissa Leo (Frozen River)
Meryl Streep (Doubt)
Kate Winslet (Revolutionary Road)
Much too frequently in the last forty or so years, one has had to dig for potential best actress nominees because not even five names could be found for the shortlist. This year is a remarkable exception, and in fact the best actress nominations are the most difficult to predict because there are no less than 10 potential contenders, seven or eight of which have a good chance of landing a spot.
Anne Hathaway and Meryl Streep are both certain to be included. They are popular Hollywood insiders, and even though Streep has received some negative reviews for her portrayal of Doubt’s obstinate, self-righteous nun, she’s still Meryl Streep.
Sally Hawkins is just about certain as well, considering that she’s been chosen best actress by both the Los Angeles and New York film critics (along with several other critics’ groups as well), and she did get a Golden Globe nomination. Even though globers and globettes love big movie stars, I believe that Hawkins, not Meryl Streep for Mamma Mia!, will be the winner in the best actress, comedy or musical category.
The fact that Hawkins failed to get a SAG nomination doesn’t mean all that much as the SAG and Academy shortlists usually don’t match 100%; I’d say that’s — at least — in part because Academy members have more time to watch their screeners of little-known films (such as Happy-Go-Lucky) that have won critical kudos at year’s end.
Academy favorite Kate Winslet already has five nominations — her first came 13 years ago. She’ll likely be adding two more this year (the other one will be in the supporting category for The Reader), even if Revolutionary Road fizzles at the box office. After all, Iris, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, and Little Children were hardly what you would call blockbusters.
Melissa Leo has a SAG nomination, a strong resume, and several mentions in critics’ award lists.
Runners-up:
- Kristin Scott Thomas (I’ve Loved You So Long), who did receive a Golden Globe nod;
- Angelina Jolie (Changeling), who did get a SAG nod though Academy members may feel that that should be enough (like last year, when she failed to receive an Oscar nomination for her SAG-nominated performance in A Mighty Heart);
- and Michelle Williams (Wendy and Lucy), who may well get a nod if enough Academy voters manage to watch her low-budget film.
Long shots: Kate Beckinsale (Nothing But the Truth), Cate Blanchett (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button), Emma Thompson (Last Chance Harvey).
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Tags: 2009 Oscar, Academy Awards, Film Awards, Happy-Go-Lucky, Kate Winslet, Meryl Streep, Oscar Predictions, Richard Jenkins, Sally Hawkins, The Visitor
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9 Responses to “Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Actor, Actress”
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I don’t believe that Sally Hawkins will get an Oscar nomination, even if Academy members have more time to watch her film. They’ll feel sorry that they snubbed Angelina Jolie last year for her excellent performance in A MIGHT HEART and they’ll nominate her this year for CHANGELING. I think that she even has a good chance of taking hom the Oscar this year.
I disagree.
I think Melissa Leo will be bumped out, yes, but that spot will be taken by Kristin Scott Thomas who was EXCELLENT in I’ve Loved You So Long.
I disagree with both you. Melissa Leo will be nominated. She’s gotten the SAG nom, and for a very small film. That says a lot.
I think Angelina Jolie will get a nomination, but the loser will be Sally Hawkins despite her LA and NY wins.
I know many people think that because they were not nominated last year to be nominated oscar Angelina now.
Well if you really look at is the view of competitiveness this year in the female category, we have great performances, but I am not saying that Hawkins will win the Oscar, but it is really a challenge for an actress and I think only able to do so after Hawkins to Meryl Streep, which is why I believe that the performance of Hawkins has been praised by critics and I would not be surprised to obtain an Oscar nomination is well deserved, on the other hand, I believe that the performance of Angelina Jolie, was overtaken by its opponents to be nominated in its category, but not bad but it was over.
I really want to see Milk. There is nothing like watching great actors like Sean Penn praticing their craft. Josh Brolin and Emile Hirsch are damn good too. I can’t help but wonder where they all studied. A good acting school is worth it’s weight in gold. The key is to find one that caters to your individual needs. Not only do you need the basic tools for auditioning, scene study and the like, but you need a curriculum that works with whatever your schedule may be. Whether you work all day, go to high school or care for your kids, not everyone can study in the traditional way. Another acting program that works this way is Film Connection. http://www.film-connection.com/Acting.html The Film Connection’s acting program is affiliated with Joe Anthony studios and features valuable one-on-one mentoring. The best part is that they teach you the “business” part of show business. They are also available to anyone living in the United States and have financial aid assistance.
An outstanding performance in the best supporting actor category seems to have been overlooked. Jason Butler Harner in the Chanegling gave a powerful performance and cetainly deserves a nomination.
Keira Knightley for best actress in THE DUCHESS. She shouldn’t be forgotten.
Cate blanchett was so great in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button… She deserves a nomination. The winner should be Merryl Streep anyways.
Meryl Streep is long overdue for her 3rd Oscar……….Academy please take note and reward her accordingly for Best Actress, plus she gave the most mesmerizing performance of the year for actresses. Kate could finally win an Oscar for her role in the Reader: supporting actress, though. Anne H. in the Best Actress category and Viola D. in the Best Supporting Actress category are the strongest competitors. Go Meryl-Best Actress! Go Kate-supporting actress Oscar!