Oscar 2009: Predictions Best Actor/Actress
Best Actor
Sean Penn, Milk
Some say "the Academy" is homophobic — as if its 6,000 or so members have all been carved out of the same monolithic block. Surely there are anti-gay members in the Academy, but there are many (more?) members with no such inclination. Brokeback Mountain didn’t get eight Oscar nominations — and didn’t win three major awards — merely by chance.
So, I believe that Sean Penn will win the best actor Academy Award this year for his portrayal of slain gay political leader Harvey Milk. Penn has received glowing reviews, the film is doing well enough at the box office, and the actor has already taken home a number of top acting prizes including the SAG Award for best actor.
Penn’s closest competitor is Mickey Rourke, but Rourke’s The Wrestler is a considerably smaller film, while the living actor-boxer probably frightens more Academy members than the dead gay activist.
The dark horses: Richard Jenkins for The Visitor, Brad Pitt for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, and Frank Langella for Frost/Nixon
Best Actress
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Among the major categories, this is the toughest one to predict. There are three perfectly feasible possibilities: Anne Hathaway for Rachel Getting Married, Kate Winslet for The Reader, and Meryl Streep for Doubt.
Hathaway is very young, and Academy members will likely decide she’s still got plenty of time to win an Oscar.
Winslet, however, has already lost five times in the last 13 years. Had she also been nominated in the best supporting actress category, it’d have been a cinch: she’d have won as a supporting actress for The Reader and would have lost the best actress Oscar (for her performance in Revolutionary Road) to Meryl Streep. The problem is that enough Academy members opted to vote for Winslet as best actress for The Reader, which meant only a single nod for the actress this year.
Veteran Julie Christie — a best actress SAG winner — lost out to the younger Oscar newcomer Marion Cotillard last year, which means that Streep’s win, despite her SAG award, is not a certainty. But then again, Christie is hardly what one would call a Hollywood Establishment Icon, while Streep is. Additionally, despite her two wins a generation ago, Streep has lost more than twice as many Oscars as Kate Winslet. In fact, since Streep’s last win for Sophie’s Choice (1982), the perennial Oscar nominee has lost 10 consecutive times. (Additionally, she also lost out in 1978 and 1981.)
It’s time for the Academy to hand Streep — one of the best film actresses of all time — her third statuette. I believe that Academy members are aware of that.
The other two best actress nominees are Angelina Jolie for Changeling and Melissa Leo for Frozen River.
Best Supporting Actor
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Even if Heath Ledger hadn’t died a year ago, he’d still be the top contender for the best supporting actor Oscar. He could even have been the top contender for the best actor Oscar, had Warner Bros. decided to push him as one of the film’s two leads. Now, Ledger is bound to become the first performer to win a posthumous Oscar since Peter Finch (for Network) in 1977.
The other nominees are: James Brolin (the only one capable of a major — and I mean major — upset) for Milk, Michael Shannon for Revolutionary Road; Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder; and Philip Seymour Hoffman for Doubt.
Best Supporting Actress
Penélope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Several of Woody Allen’s supporting players have fared well with Academy voters. Think of winners Dianne Wiest and Michael Caine in Hannah and Her Sisters, Dianne Wiest again in Bullets Over Broadway, and Mira Sorvino in Mighty Aphrodite.
Penélope Cruz will likely be the next one, for her performance as Javier Bardem’s fiery ex in Vicky Cristina Barcelona. Kate Winslet would have been the likely winner had she been nominated in this category for The Reader. Since she wasn’t, the Oscar now belongs to Cruz.
Either a Marisa Tomei (for her stripper in The Wrestler) or a Viola Davis (for her concerned mother in Doubt) win, would be a major upset.
Others in the running: Amy Adams for Doubt and Taraji P. Henson for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.
Oscar 2009: Predictions Best Film
Oscar 2009: THE READER’s Nominated Producers Announced
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I agree with your choices, but I wouldn’t say that a Marisa Tomei win would be a major upset. I think Cruz is the favorite, but Marisa is right up there as well. It’ll be a tight race.
I agree with your predictions in the supporting categories. However, I think the race between Ms. Winslet and Ms. Streep for Best Actress is too close too call. I also think Mickey Rourke will win for THE WRESTLER. Hollywood loves a comeback. It also doesn’t hurt that Mr. Rourke is astonishing in the film and is giving the performance of the year and a performance for the ages.
kate winslet will win best actress. she’s not my favorite, but i think that hers is the type of performance that academy membres will vote for. streep will have to wait for her 15th loss or so before academy voters decide to give her another oscar.
Mickey Rourke will win for the Wrestler. Marisa Tomei will win for the Wrestler.
SEAN PENN WILL WIN!
I do not agree with people saying Mickey Rourke is going to win.
First of all, Milk is nominated for best picture (you wouldnt think that it gives an actor an advantage, but it does).
Secondly, Harvey Milk is a historical character, and everybody knows the academy loves these types of roles.
Finally, Sean Penn is purely and simply much better at what he does in Milk than what Mickey Rourke does in The Wrestler. Rourke is emotional and moving, but Penn is awesome, passionate, and completely believable playing a character while not being gay (I think).
So I think his effort is more deserving of the oscar than anybody else.
AND i would be willing to bet that its Penelope Cruz winning for supporting actress and not Marisa Tomei. Once again, Tomei is very good, but Cruz is awesomely natural playing an insane, jealous, incredibly sexy ex-wife in Vicky Cristina Barcelona.
In other words what i am saying is that the academy loves original and crazy roles whereas Marisa Tomei’s character in The Wrestler is not so unusual.
I saw all the Best Actor performances except
Richard Jenkins in The Visitor. I believe the
Langella performance is exceptional, but sadly,
his performance and Frost/Nixon will be passed
by this year. I found the Mickey Rourke performance to be inspiring, I did not find his
character to be down-and-out and I don’t believe
that he is basically presenting himself.
But I agree that Sean Penn’s performance has the greatest breadth, boldness and complexity.
He is the Best Actor this year and the Academy
members will recognize his work with the Oscar.
Kate Winslet will win the best actress Oscar. Meryl Streep will have to wait some time longer. Personally I think they’re both great actresses and they both should win but I think that a tie is very unlikely. How many times has that happened before?
I HAVE WATCHED EVERY SINGLE MOVIE!!!
Best Actor
Mickey Rourke should win. He gave the best performance of the year!!!
Sean 2nd, Frank 3rd, Brad 4th, Richard 5th
Best Actress
Kate Winslet should win. She has always been consistent, and it is time to reward her.
Anne 2nd, Angelina 3rd, Meryl 4th, Melissa 5th
Supp. Actor
Heath Ledger should win. He had the second best performance of the year, after Mickey.
Robert 2nd, Philip 3rd, Josh 4th, Michael 5th
Supp. Actress
Penelope Cruz should win. She gave the third best performance of the year, after Mickey and Heath.
Marisa 2nd, Viola 3rd, Taraji 4th, Amy 5th
MY RANKING OF CHARACTER ACTING
1. Mickey
2. Heath
3. Penelope
4. Sean
5. Frank
6. Marisa
7. Kate
8. Anne
9. Robert
10. Angelina
11. Meryl
12. Brad
13. Melissa
14. Philip
15. Viola
16. Taraji
17. Richard
18. Josh
19. Michael
20. Amy
Huh…
To each his own, but Sean Penn would be at the very top of my list.
Poor Amy Adams… #20 in your list?
Mickey Rourke is getting so much credit he doesn’t deserve i mean its not because its a comeback performance that its the best of the year.
I agree he is emotional in The Wrestler but come Sean Penn is better.
they were all good but mickey rourke was great.
deniro gained 30 lbs for raging bull. rourke did too but it was all muscle. deniro didn’t really have a fighter’s built. not a big deal, deniro was absolute dynamite. langella is fantastic but this was mimicing as if a SNL skit. boomers know the story anyhow. ditto Harvey Milk. btw Milk may have been gay but he used people. brad pitt is always good but Button was a cornball sentiment interminable cheesy, etc. he was better in Burn After Reading. rourke hands down, the time worn Rocky story made fresh. not especially a rourke fan, but get real. he flattened the field.
sean penn is not an actor,he acts himself out in all his movies and the public can fell it.Disregarde him as a best actor and give the statuette to a real actor and strugler Mickey Rourke!!!!!
Sean Penn gives me the “creeps”everytime I see him in a movie this “asshole”thinks he’s better than anyone else, come on he’s a jerk with no real talent. When have you seen him displaying a whole range of emotions like playing in a comedy?No he simply can’t,he can only play the range of his own fuck up life including a gay one just like this movie!Please give the statuette to a real actor and most of all stop considering this “con artist”as a real actor!!!
How wrong can you be…
When I watch Sean Penn, I’m always aware that he’s “acting.” Nothing seems organic. Everything he does seems too studied and calculated. I felt his work in MILK was no exception. Mickey Rourke ’s work in THE WRESTLER was astonishingly natural and real. I forgot I was watching a movie. I felt as if I was watching a documentary about an over the hill wrestler. I hope Hollywood gets it right and gives him the Oscar. Win or lose, it will always be remembered as a performance for the ages.
I agree with you Roger about Mickey Rourke’s acting,he’s immersed so much in the part that it seems so natural;that is what acting is all about.I agree with you mostly on Sean Penn and would add this (since you seem to qualify him as a technical actor)I don’t know where he learned his techniques but he seriously needs another method!!
WhO iSh thE bESt ACtORS fOR thE yEAR Of 2009-2010??
best actor-sean penn
best actress-kate winslet but i think that anne is also very good
best supp. actor-heath ledger
best supp.actress-penelope(?) but actually i don’t know
p.s. brad pitt sould have been nominated 4 burn after reading then he would probably get an oscar…
If anyone is interested, I would like to share opinions.
What are YOUR PERSONAL ACTING NOMINATIONS for 2008 if it was your job and only yours to nominate?
I had quite some fun in doing my personal nominations! (I guess I should get a life but hey i enjoyed it). And here they are:
BEST PICTURE
Gran Torino
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Changeling
BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
Sean Penn – Milk
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
BEST ACTRESS
Kristin Scott Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
Melissa Leo – Frozen River
Angelina Jolie – Changeling
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Eddie Marsan – Happy-Go-Lucky
Ralph Fiennes – The Reader
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Misty Upham – Frozen River
Jane Lynch – Role Models
Elsa Zylberstein – I’ve Loved You So Long
BEST DIRECTOR
Clint Eastwood – Changeling
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Sam Mendes – Revolutionary Road
Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Burn After Reading
Gran Torino
Frozen River
Milk
I’ve Loved You So Long
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Revolutionary Road
Frost/Nixon
Doubt
Slumdog Millionaire
The Dark Night
Ah thanks for that johnX.
I have to say, in my opinion, your nominations have way fewer snubs than the actual ones of the academy…
Dont know what other people will think…
best actor
Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight
Robert Downey Jr. – Iron Man
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler
Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino
best actress
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road
best supporting actress
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Penelope Cruz – Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis – Doubt
Amy Adams – Doubt
best supporting actor
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Robert Downey Jr – Tropic Thunder
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
actor:
Sean Penn, Milk
Brad Pitt, Benjamin Button
Leonardo Di Caprio, Body of Lies
actress:
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Kate Winslet, The Reader
Cate Blanchett, Benjamin Button
supporting actor:
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
David Kross, The Reader
Ralph Fiennes, The Reader
supporting actress:
Amy Adams, Doubt
Viola Davis, Doubt
Taraji Henson, Benjamin Button
Finally, I see a vote for Michael Sheen for
Best Actor, he deserved the 5th nomination over
Richard Jenkins. I’ve seen all the Oscar-nominated movies except the Winslet movies (not a big fan) and Frost/Nixon is the best movie of the year, hands-down.
Mickey Rourke: I agree with everybody who loved the performance, I’m the same age bracket and I felt great after The Wrestler, I wanted to go out and live my life every day and plow thru all the problems, just like his character. But I think Sean Penn has a wider range in Milk.
Sean Penn: “He looks like he’s acting”. Okay,
so does: every role by Dustin Hoffman, my favorite actor; every role by Pacino, except maybe
his Godfather performances; every role by Brando; DeNiro, I dunno, I think DeNiro plays DeNiro, except (again) his Godfather (II) performance. Who doesn’t look like he’s acting ?
Paul Newman, period. I could watch Paul Newman
performances round-the-clock forever.
I like the votes for Hoffman in Doubt, he’s the best actor in the movie. I also like the vote for Misty Upham in Frozen River, in some ways I think she is better than Melissa Leo. I also think that Blanchett got snubbed this year, maybe cuz she got 2 noms last year. Did you see her playing Bob Dylan, she was great as Dylan.
Randy you’re so right when you say that De Niro,Pacino,Brando do seem like they act sometimes in some movies but on the other end they do not in some others;thats why they are great actors in some it shows in some it doesnt!I dont agree with your opinion about Dustin Hoffman’s performance,I know where you want go Hoffman’s performance of an autistic man was way more credible than the one Sean Penn gave about a mentally challenged man.I could feel Penn was pulling on the cliché strings whereas Hoffman was inspired by a study of character he deeply ingested.
I thought Richard Jenkins was very good in The Visitor and deserved a nomination. I know he has no chance of winning and that’s fine. But I’m glad he was nominated. He would have been one of my choices.
It’s interesting to see Heath Ledger put up as BEST ACTOR.
I mean that would have been much more logical wouldnt it?
How is Ledger a supporting actor in TDK when Frank Langella is a lead actor in Frost/Nixon?
To me, same thing. And with Heath Ledger’ Joker totally outshining Christian Bale’s Batman, he should definitely have been nominated as a best actor.
I also agree that Heath Ledger should have been included in the best actor category. I could be wrong, but I believe that if he were alive he would have been listed in that category, not as a supporting actor, especially since Christian Bale had no chance of getting a nomination.
Hpar, what are *your* picks for the acting nominations?
Also, “I’ve Loved You So Long” will be coming out on DVD in a few weeks. I can’t understand why Thomas fared so well with the European Academy and with BAFTA, but not in the US. With Sally Hawkins it was kind of the other way around, except that she ended up not getting an Academy Award nomination (on the other hand, she did win in Berlin).
best actor
Leonardo Di Caprio – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
Sean Penn – MILK
Mickey Rourke – THE WRESTLER
best actress
Kate Winslet – REVOLUTIONRARY ROAD
Meryl Streep – DOUBT
Anne Hathaway – RACHEL GETTING MARRIED
best supp. actor
Heath Ledger – THE DARK KNIGHT
Philip Seymour Hoffman – DOUBT
Michael Shannon – REVOLUTIONARY ROAD
best supp. actress
Marisa Tomei – THE WRESTLER
Penelope Cruz – VICKY CHRISTINA BARCELONA
Viola Davis – DOUBT
I didn’t like BENJAMIN BUTTON. Thought it way too long. Brad Pitt was okay, but not best actor material. His makeup man should win the Oscar.
Kate Winslet will win. She deserves it and she has lost many times. Meryl Streep will have to wait for ther 16th nominations.
Kristin Scott Thomas should have been nominated. Too bad there wasn’t any room.
Here are my favorites:
(if I were forced to put Heath Ledger as supporting actor then I would put Michael Sheen from Frost/Nixon in best actor)
+ (I have seen all contenders except Rachel Getting Married)
Actor:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella, Fost/Nixon
Clint Eastwood, Gran Torino
Sean Penn, Milk
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
Actress:
Meryl Streep, Doubt
Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Sally Hawkins, Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristin Scott Thomas, I’ve Loved You So Long
Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Sup. Actor:
Josh Brolin, Milk
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt
Ralph Fiennes – The Reader
Brad Pitt, Burn After Reading
Sup.Actress
Elsa Zylberstein, I’ve Loved You So Long
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler
Misty Upham, Frozen River
Cate Blanchett, Benjamin Button
KATE FOR BEST ACTRESS!!!!!
You know, I hope Kate Winslet doesn’t win the Oscar. I don’t think she deserves it for THE READER. I didn’t like the film, didn’t like her lines, didn’t like her makeup at the end. She isn’t as bad as her lines or her aging facial plaster, but she isn’t as good as she can be.
My pick for best actress would be either Meryl Streep or Anne Hathaway.
I have yet to see Rachel Getting Married but I kind of agree that I would prefer if the oscar did not go to KATE WINSLET.
I’d rather see Meryl Streep winning (she deserves it), or Melissa Leo (my personal favorite: outsider, performance is so natural, frozen river brilliant indie film).
And if it had to go to Kate Winslet I would have rather see her getting it for REVOLUTIONARY ROAD, much better than the reader.
Finally just for the record, I would like to mention Angelina Jolie. I dont especially like the woman but i think she doesnt get the credit she deserves for a wonderful performance in changeling. She fully deserves her nomination and I dont like people saying its a joke that she got it.
Perdón, peroooo … ¿LE ESTAN DICIENDO “LECHE” A MILK ?????
ES UN APELLIDOOOOOO, NO SE TRADUCE, GENTE, NO SE TRADUCEEEEEEEEE
Mariolo,
The translation into Spanish is done automatically for those who access the Spanish-language version of this page (thanks to the multi-language “translator” plug-in).
“Milk” (mis)translated as “Leche” is beyond our control…
It was stated that Mickey Rourkes film was a smaller film than Sean Penns, I don’t think it was, no theater wanted to take a chance on this film and so there was very little distribution of this movie. I couldn’t find a place to see it, I live in the Chicago suburbs and it was not playing near me, I only saw two theaters showing it.I am sure after the Oscars, whether Mickey wins or loses it will be showing everywhere, thats unfortunate befcause Milk was all over the place as was Benjamin Buttons, I avoided both of those films because I don’t like Sean Penn and I think Brad Pitt is totally over rated. I love Mickey Rourkes work and I hope he wins, he is the butt of jokes and bad press again,actors should be judged on their performances, if that were the case Mickey would win every year. Good Luck to him.
Last minute predictions: for me, Slumdog Millionaire with 4 awards at least (picture, director, screenplay, score) although I would love it if there could be some suprises…
BEST PICTURE:
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ACTOR:
Sean Penn, Milk
BEST ACTRESS:
Kate Winslet, The Reader
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Heath Ledger, The Dark Knight
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
Penelope Cruz, Vicky Cristina Barcelona
BEST DIRECTOR:
Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY:
Milk
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Slumdog Millionaire
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE:
Slumdog Millionaire
Yeah, I think that my Meryl Streep prediction will go down the drain, but I’m still hoping she’ll win.
Not so I can be right, but just because I think she *deserves* to win.
Winslet can win next year. She’s only 33.
I’m so disappointed,Sean Penn won over Mickey Rourke!!!This as***** without real talent always win when nominated,what a shameless lobby the academy jury is under.Common how can they be so blind and foulish!!!!
Am I the only one who wanted Richard Jenkins to win????????
Regarding the distribution of The Wrestler
versus Milk in Chicago:
The Wrestler got a very wide distribution in
Chicago and its suburbs after Rourke won the
Golden Globe. A lot of theaters in the burbs
and the city tried to show Milk after the
Oscar nominations, but it did not last long and
returned to just 2 theaters in gay
neighborhoods. The Wrestler has also made a lot
of money here, it ranked 10th in revenue for
2 weeks in a row.
Box Office Mojo, est. for Feb. 22, 2009:
http://www.boxofficemojo.com/
MILK
Release Date: November 26, 2008
Domestic: $28,176,000 78.2%
+ Foreign: $7,861,492 21.8%
= Worldwide: $36,037,492
THE WRESTLER
Release Date: December 17, 2008
Domestic: $21,552,000 79.4%
+ Foreign: $5,576,739 20.6%
= Worldwide: $27,128,739
Estimates for Feb 22 weekend
16 The Wrestler $1,825,000 -1.3% 617 theaters ($2,958 per theater)
19 Milk $1,099,000 +25.2% 411 theaters ($2,674 per theater)
SEAN PENN won and he deserves it for gods sake.
Mickey Rourke was very emotional and all because its his comeback, but sean penn’s achievement playing Harvey Milk is pure acting brilliance.
I decided to see The Reader now that Winslet
won an Oscar for it. Did Winslet deserve a Lead
Actress Oscar for her role ? I dunno, probably
not. However, I believe that the movie is
profound, exceptionally crafted and acted,
and certainly Oscar-worthy in multiple categories.
para mim não ha melhor actriz no mundo. Meryl streep e a melhor actrizx do mundo, nao ha duvidas. No mamma mia fez um papel animado, divertido i mostrou k sabia kantar, enkuanto k kuando fez de freira fez um papel komplectamemnte diferente!