Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Josh Brolin in Milk
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)
Though about as much a lead in The Dark Knight as Christian Bale, Heath Ledger is (almost) for sure the one who’ll win the best supporting actor Oscar come next February.
Philip Seymour Hoffman should get included for Doubt and Robert Downey Jr. for his politically incorrect actor in Tropic Thunder.
Of the extensive supporting cast in Milk, Josh Brolin is the most likely contender, while Dev Patel, who apparently supports himself in Slumdog Millionaire, should also make the cut thanks to his film’s popularity.
Runners-up: Michael Sheen (Frost/Nixon), as much a lead as Frank Langella, is being pushed in the supporting category in the usual scuzzy farce that studios, distributors, and publicists come up with so that leads can steal the spot of legitimate supporting players. (Academy members — and critics’ groups, the Hollywood Foreign Press, etc. — are usually all too eager to go along with the dishonesty.)
However, with Dev Patel, Philip Seymour Hoffman, and Heath Ledger already crowding the field of leads-as-supporting players, and leading men such as Josh Brolin and Robert Downey Jr. in semi-supporting roles, that leaves no room for Sheen, whose David Frost will most likely suffer the fate of his non-nominated Tony Blair (in The Queen) two years ago.
James Franco (Milk) could also end up among the top five, even though his name has only seldom been mentioned in year-end award lists.
Long shots: Bill Irwin (Rachel Getting Married), Eddie Marsan (Happy-Go-Lucky), Michael Shannon (Revolutionary Road), Ralph Fiennes (The Duchess).
Marisa Tomei in The Wrestler
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams (Doubt)
Penélope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
Viola Davis (Doubt)
Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
Kate Winslet (The Reader)
This is another field dominated by big names in roles that are a notch below leads. In a weaker year, Kate Winslet would surely have been pushed in the best actress category for The Reader, and the same probably goes for Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona and perhaps even Amy Adams in Doubt.
If Marisa Tomei could get nominated — and win — for My Cousin Vinny, she’ll most likely get at least a nomination for her The Wrestler pole dancer.
Viola Davis is the only lesser-known name among the potential five nominees, and the only reason she’s there is because of all the critical recognition she’s been getting — plus her SAG nomination.
Runners-up: The two runners-up — Rosemarie DeWitt (Rachel Getting Married) and Taraji P. Henson (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button) — would have considerably better chances if they were stars. The Hollywood Foreign Press keeps getting badgered for loving big-name movie stars among their nominees, but the revered Academy is really not all that different. Even so, either DeWitt or SAG nominee Henson may still land a spot among the five shortlisted supporting actress.
Long shots: Debra Winger (Rachel Getting Married), who would have been a shoo-in had her performance received more year-end attention; Misty Upham (Frozen River); Vera Farmiga (Nothing But the Truth); Catherine Keener (Synecdoche, New York); Emma Thompson (Brideshead Revisited); Beyoncé Knowles (Cadillac Records).
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Tags: 2009 Oscar, Academy Awards, Film Awards, Heath Ledger, Josh Brolin, Kate Winslet, Marisa Tomei, Milk, Oscar Predictions, The Wrestler
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