In the last fifteen years, only four times have the nominees in the Academy Awards' best actor category matched those up for the Screen Actors Guild Awards. Two of those times took place in the last three years.

There's a very good chance that this year will be the fifth time the two lists will mirror one another. So, why wasn't Morgan Freeman listed up above for his stately performance as Nelson Mandela in Clint Eastwood's Invictus?

Well, in all honesty, we've decided to go out on a limb in the Best Actor category. Apart from his National Board of Review win early in December, Freeman has had his name mentioned here and there, but he's hardly been a favorite to win anything. A Serious Man fans, on the other hand, have been more enthusiastic; proof of that is the number of awards for best screenplay that this Joel and Ethan Coen dark comedy has received. Stuhlbarg, for his part, has also earned great reviews and even managed to land a Golden Globe nomination — something unusual for an actor who isn't a stellar attraction.

So, we believe there's a chance that Michael Stuhlbarg will be an upset nominee. That's why we have him listed.

Other possible upsetters are: Viggo Mortensen for The Road, Matt Damon for The Informant!, Joseph Gordon-Levitt for (500) Days of Summer, and Robert Downey Jr for Sherlock Holmes. (Downey Jr's humorous speech at the Golden Globes probably won him some extra votes.)

Hal Holbrook shouldn't be completely discarded. It all depends on the number of screeners Academy members received. And if they bothered to watch That Evening Sun, which has been mostly ignored by critics and other groups.

If Daniel Day-Lewis gets a nod for Nine, Academy members will be turned into stone.

Photos: Crazy Heart (Lorey Sebastian / 20th Century Fox); Up in the Air (Dale Robinette / Paramount); The Hurt Locker (Jonathan Olley / Summit Entertainment); A Single Man (Eduard Grau/ The Weinstein Company); A Serious Man (Focus Features)