Oscar Predictions

Best Director

Four of the directors above were nominated by the Directors Guild of America. European Film Award winner Michael Haneke is the exception. We're replacing DGA choice Lee Daniels with Haneke because we've reached a tentative consensus. Actually, we've reached no consensus at all. Haneke is on the list simply because we've decided to go out on a limb once again.

Of course, the DGA and the Academy seldom agree 100% on their choice of nominees. Smaller and foreign films usually fare much better with the Academy. Also, Haneke's The White Ribbon is a director's film, much like Kathryn Bigelow's The Hurt Locker or Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds is a director's film. Lee Daniels' Precious is less obviously so. One could see it as a screenwriter's and/or an actor's film.

Having said that, Daniels has a great chance of landing a nomination — greater, in fact, than Haneke. But every year really unexpected surprises take place when the Oscar nominations are announced, and this may be one of them. Remember, a fair number of Academy members watched the foreign-language film screenings. If they admired The White Ribbon — it's one of the nine semi-finalists in that category — they surely remembered Michael Haneke when filling out their ballots.

Three other strong possibilities to replace Daniels are Clint Eastwood, less because of Invictus than because he's Clint Eastwood; Neill Blomkamp of the sleeper hit District 9; and the brothers Joel and Ethan Coen for A Serious Man, a biting comedy that has a number of ardent fans.

Less likely: Lone Scherfig, An Education.

Photos: Up in the Air (Dale Robinette / Paramount);
The Hurt Locker (Jonathan Olley / Summit Entertainment); Avatar (Mark Fellman / 20th Century Fox); Inglourious Basterds (François Duhamel / The Weinstein Co.)