2010 Oscar Predictions

Best Supporting Actress

With the exception of Samantha Morton, the actresses above were all included in the SAG Awards' shortlist. Diane Kruger was also in there for Inglourious Basterds, but we think that two-time Oscar nominee Morton (Sweet and Lowndown and In America) has a better chance of landing a nomination for her role as a war widow in The Messenger. Why? Because it's more dramatic, it's not part of an ensemble, and Morton has been there before. Clearly, enough Academy members like her.

Also, we were tempted to replace Penelope Cruz with Marion Cotillard, but ultimately opted to leave Cruz as the sole Nine representative in this category. Another possibility is Julianne Moore, who could take either Cruz's or Morton's place on our list. In Tom Ford's A Single Man, Moore plays an alcoholic married to one man but enamored of another (Colin Firth) who happens to be gay. You can't get much more dramatic than that. As a plus, the Academy has shown it really likes her: four nominations between 1997 and 2002. She's overdue for another.

Other possibilities: one of us believes that Susan Sarandon (The Lovely Bones) could get a sentimental nomination following her much-publicized separation from Tim Robbins, but most of us doubt that. Sarandon doesn't look or act at all like the poor, bereaved abandoned one. Inglourious Basterds' Mélanie Laurent would be a likelier possibility here — and not for sentimental reasons. Her role is relatively large and she's been singled out by numerous critics.

Photos: Precious (Anne Marie Fox / Lionsgate); Nine (David James / The Weinstein Co.); Up in the Air (Dale Robinette / Paramount); The Messenger (Oscilloscope Laboratories)