Penélope Cruz has already won a best actress European Film Award (for Volver in 2006) and since her role in Broken Embraces is borderline supporting, my guess is that Cannes winner Charlotte Gainsbourg (above, with Willem Dafoe) will be the one taking home the prize for her bereaved sexed-out mother in Lars von Trier's Antichrist. But who knows? Oscar winner Kate Winslet (for The Reader) could be the dark horse who splits the vote with the brown one (Katie Jarvis for Fish Tank) so the rainbow-colored equine (French Academy's Cesar winner Yolande Moreau in Séraphine) can win.
For the best actor award, I'd say the race is between two Cannes favorites: Tahar Rahim (above) for his tough inmate in A Prophet and
Filippo Timi for two roles — Mussolini and his son in Marco Bellocchio's Vincere. Both actors have received considerable more acclaim than, say, David Kross (for The Reader) or Dev Patel (for Slumdog Millionaire). Moritz Bleibtreu is a respected performer, but as some would say, The Baader Meinhof Complex is so 2008. (The European Film Academy should really rethink its eligibility schedule.)
If The White Ribbon doesn't win the best picture and best director awards, expect Michael Haneke to take home the best screenplay award. If A Prophet doesn't win the best picture and best director awards, expect Jacques Audiard and co-screenwriter Thomas Bidegain to take home the screenplay award. Unlike Hollywood Academy voters, European Academy members like to spread their love around. (In the last five years, only one film won all three awards: Matteo Garrone's Gomorrah.)
Best animated feature? Tomm Moore's The Secret of Kells (above), one of the semi-finalists for the 2010 Academy Awards in the best animated feature category.
Best cinematography? A hard call, but my guess would be Oscar winner Anthony Dod Mantle for this year's Antichrist and last year's Slumdog Millionaire.
Best composer? Alberto Iglesias for Broken Embraces, if only to give some recognition to Pedro Almodóvar's film. (Iglesias' score, by the way, which can be fully experienced at the end of the movie, is superb.)
We'll find out how right — or wrong — I am in a few hours.