Oftentimes, a film that doesn't make it into the Golden Globes' Best Picture – Drama or Best Picture – Comedy or Musical shortlist, ends up nominated in the Best Screenplay (original or adapted) category, e.g., You Can Count on Me, Memento, Far from Heaven, Crash, Notes on a Scandal, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly.

Those are almost invariably smaller films, and that's why I believe that Jane Campion's Bright Star — romantic, tragic, gorgeous — will make the cut this year. That is, unless Hollywood Foreign Press Association members decide to pick a writer-director star: in that case, Quentin Tarantino would be in for Inglourious Basterds.

True, the Lovely Bones screenwriters — whom I have listed above — have been criticized by some for diluting the original novel, but there seems to be enough appreciation for the film to guarantee them at least a nomination. In fact, there's no rule, written or otherwise, that stipulates that only films with 100% approval ratings can get nominated for the year's top awards. I mean, look at the Oscars: Gladiator, A Beautiful Mind, Crash, etc. etc. were greeted by — at best — mixed reviews.

Other strong best screenplay possibilities are: Nick Hornby, An Education (above, with Carey Mulligan, Dominic Cooper); Michael Tolkin, Anthony Minghella, Nine; Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker; and Nora Ephron, Julie & Julia.

And here are some more: Scott Z. Burns, The Informant!; Peter Straughan, The Men Who Stare at Goats; Michael Hoffman, The Last Station; Joe Penhall, The Road; and Nancy Meyers, It's Complicated.

Less likely but not impossible: Woody Allen, Whatever Works; John Lee Hancock, The Blind Side.

I should add that it's been reported that Rob Marshall's Nine is not another Chicago. I'd have thought that would be a good thing, but apparently the comparison isn't supposed to be taken as a compliment.