Oscar 2008 Predictions
by Andre Soares
Oscar 2008 Winner Predictions: Film, Documentary, Director, Screenplay
Oscar 2008 Winner Predictions: Actors
Oscar 2008 Winner Predictions: Technical Categories
I haven’t been following too closely the debates about who will or won’t be nominated for an Academy Award this year, though a few front-runners — No Country for Old Men (above), There Will Be Blood, Ratatouille, Joel and Ethan Coen, Daniel Day-Lewis, Julie Christie, George Clooney, Marion Cotillard, Ellen Page — have become rather obvious after U.S. critics, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and the Screen Actors Guild began announcing their winners and/or nominees.
That said, I have also read here and there comments on how this film, that star, or that sound technician (joke) will fare in the voting.
The list below is incomplete and quite likely not all that accurate. The only reason I’m bothering with this is because the Alternative Film Guide has been getting numerous queries about potential Oscar 2008 contenders.
By the way, that’s not to say that I couldn’t care less about the Oscars. Not at all. In fact, as much as I disagree with many — most? — of the Academy’s choices, I find the Oscars fascinating — partly because of their place in movie culture, and partly because I’m a list fanatic.
So, here they are:
Best Film:
No Country for Old Men
There Will Be Blood
Into the Wild
Michael Clayton
Atonement
Possibly: Juno, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street, American Gangster, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, The Kite Runner
The foreign-language film category is the one that usually interests me the most. It’s also the most problematic to hazard a guess because the (few) people who vote in this category tend to be (quite) older — I’ve been to foreign-language film Academy screenings where the average age of the audience was 102. They are also much more conservative than the already conservative Academy. Compounding matters, I wonder how many of them actually bother watching more than the required absolute minimum number of films.
Anyhow, strong possibilities are Cannes winner 4 Months, 3 Weeks and 2 Days (Cristian Mungiu, Romania), the much-ballyhooed Persepolis (Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud, France), the highly popular and multiple Goya-nominee The Orphanage (right, J.A. Bayona, Spain), and the David di Donatello-winning The Unknown (Giuseppe Tornatore, Italy).
Also, those Academy members have shown a penchant for films featuring cute little boys, e.g., Tornatore’s Cinema Paradiso, Kolya, The Thief, Children of Heaven, Central Station, Life Is Beautiful, The Chorus, As It Is in Heaven. If the trend continues, M for Mother (Rasoul Mollagholipour, Iran) and The Year My Parents Went on Vacation (Cao Hamburger, Brazil) have a good chance at landing a nomination.
Films with Jewish themes/characters and/or Nazis/World War II are even more popular — see Sophie Scholl – The Final Days, Paradise Now, Downfall, Zelary, Twin Sisters, Nowhere in Africa, Divided We Fall, etc. (The fact that The Black Book failed to land a nomination last year was nearly as eyebrow-raising as the absence of Volver in the list of nominees.) This year, there’s Beaufort (Joseph Cedar, Israel), The Counterfeiters (Stefan Ruzowitzky, Austria), the aforementioned The Year My Parents Went on Vacation, Katyn (Andrzej Wajda, Poland), and probably a few others I’m unaware of.
But most importantly, those Academy voters love sentiment and gooey situations, in addition to a spoonful — sometimes a whole bucket — of mediocrity. Therefore, many excellent submitted films go unnoticed, while many lesser ones end up with a nomination. Hopefully, this year it’ll be different. But don’t hold your breath.
See Oscar 2008: Best Foreign-Language Film Shortlist
That’s another hard one, as it’s a special category. Michael Moore’s Sicko and Charles Ferguson’s No End in Sight will most likely get a nod.
Best Director:
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Sean Penn, Into the Wild
Possibly: Jason Reitman, Juno, Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton, Ridley Scott, American Gangster, Joe Wright, Atonement; Tim Burton, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street; Sidney Lumet, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Best Actor:
George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises
Possibly: Denzel Washington, American Gangster; Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening; James McAvoy, Atonement; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street; Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild; Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl; Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
Best Actress:
Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A Mighty Heart
Possibly: Amy Adams, Enchanted; Keira Knightley, Atonement; Helena Bonham Carter, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street; Cate Blanchett, Elizabeth: The Golden Years; Laura Linney, The Savages
Best Supporting Actor:
Casey Affleck, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Hal Holbrook, Into the Wild
Tom Wilkinson, Michael Clayton
Possibly: Tommy Lee Jones, No Country for Old Men; Philip Seymour Hoffman, Charlie Wilson’s War; Paul Dano, There Will Be Blood; Max von Sydow, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Supporting Actress:
Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone)
Tilda Swinton (Michael Clayton )
Cate Blanchett (I’m Not There)
Possibly: Saoirse Ronan, Atonement; Ruby Dee, American Gangster; Vanessa Redgrave, Atonement; Marisa Tomei, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead; Catherine Keener, Into the Wild
Best Original Screenplay:
Diablo Cody, Juno
Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton
Possibly: Steven Zaillian, American Gangster (though actually "inspired" by a magazine article)
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Possibly: Sarah Polley, Away from Her; Vincent Paronnaud and Marjane Satrapi, Persepolis; David Benioff, The Kite Runner
Best Cinematography:
Roger Deakins, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford
Janusz Kaminski, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Roger Deakins, No Country for Old Men
Seamus McGarvey, Atonement
Dariusz Wolski, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Possibly: Robert Elswit, There Will Be Blood
Best Animated Feature:
Persepolis
Ratatouille
Possibly: Beowulf, The Simpsons Movie
You can find much more thorough Oscar predictions — though I can’t vouch for their accuracy — and coverage at the following:
Oscar 2008 Winner Predictions: Film, Documentary, Director, Screenplay
Oscar 2008 Winner Predictions: Actors
Oscar 2008 Winner Predictions: Technical Categories
David A. Grafton to Receive Gordon E. Sawyer Award
Oscar 2008: 306 Eligible Films
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Oscar 2008: Best Song Shortlist
Robert Boyle to Receive Honorary Oscar
Oscar 2008: Documentary Shortlist
63 Countries Competing for Best Foreign Language Film Oscar Nod
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i second the motion. great choices (guess!
I couldn’t agree more for the large majority. Divided we Fall got snubbed. You drilled a lot of them and a bunch you predicted got snubbed, good list. (good interview with the writer of Divided We Fall here: http://www.indigestmag.com/kaur.htm)