Oscar 2008 Predictions: Film, Foreign Film, Documentary, Director, Screenplay, Animated Feature
by Andre Soares
Best Film: No Country for Old Men
Until late last week, things were still somewhat murky in the best film race. No Country for Old Men and There Will Be Blood were the front-runners, while Juno was the dark horse that could potentially upset the heavy-drama heavyweights. But after the SAG best ensemble and DGA wins, No Country for Old Men, about a drug deal gone murderously wrong, has become the official front-runner.
Best Foreign Language Film: Katyn (Poland)
As I’ve said before, this is the toughest feature-film category to predict. None of the five nominees — Beaufort, 12, The Counterfeiters, Mongol, and Katyn — has been widely reviewed in the United States.
I’d say Katyn, about the Russian Red Army’s slaughter of Polish troops, is the likely winner because 1) it’s set during World War II, the Academy’s foreign-language film voters’ favorite cinematic period* 2) it was directed by veteran Andrzej Wajda, 82 (next March), who has been given an honorary Academy Award but whose films have never won the best foreign language film Oscar.
*Best foreign language film Oscar nominees with a WWII background (1998-2007): Katyn, The Counterfeiters, Days of Glory, Sophie Scholl - The Final Days, †Downfall, Zelary, Twin Sisters, †Nowhere in Africa, Divided We Fall, †Life Is Beautiful.
† Winners
Best Documentary - Feature: No End in Sight
Charles Ferguson’s Iraq War documentary, about the Bush administration’s mix of arrogance and ineptitude before, during, and after the invasion of Iraq, has received numerous accolades from US film critics’ groups. Considering the bloody, costly disaster that war has become and the fact that the effects of the US-led invasion and occupation will reverberate for years — or, more likely, decades — to come, No End in Sight deals with a highly topical subject matter.
Also, Academy-ites will likely refrain from handing out another Oscar to Michael Moore (for Sicko) for fear he, with camera in hand, may confront those who booed him when he spoke out against the invasion at the 2003 ceremony. "I told you so, you imbeciles!"
Richard Foreman / Miramax Films
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
By now the Coen brothers are veterans; they’ve been around for more than two decades and neither one has ever won a best director Oscar. Joel Coen was nominated in 1996 for Fargo, but lost to Anthony Minghella for The English Patient. (Until The Ladykillers in 2004, in which they were billed as directors, producers [along with a few other names], writers, and editors [as "Roderick Jaynes"], the Coen brothers shared credit for their films by naming Joel the director and Ethan the producer.)
It’s the Coens’ turn now — and they’ve won this year’s DGA Award, the first pair to do so since Robert Wise and Jerome Robbins won for West Side Story back in 1961 (or early 1962, whenever the DGA ceremony was held).
Fox Searchlight
Best Original Screenplay: Diablo Cody, Juno
Diablo Cody’s comedy (directed by Jason Reitman) about a pregnant 15-year-old in search of the ideal parents for her upcoming child has won a number of best screenplay awards from US film critics. It’s also a "little" comedy — in a sea of heavy drama — that has gone on to become a crowd-pleasing box-office hit in the same manner as last year’s Little Miss Sunshine — the winner of the best original screenplay Oscar.
Best Adapted Screenplay: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
If it were the Golden Globes or a major film festival, my guess here would have been Paul Thomas Anderson for There Will Be Blood. But unlike the Hollywood Foreign Press Association and world film festival juries, Academy members tend to vote for the same film in many categories, e.g., in recent years, The Departed with four wins out of five nominations, Million Dollar Baby with four wins out of seven nominations, and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King with eleven wins out of eleven nominations. (In 2005, Crash had to share the love with Brokeback Mountain.)
More importantly, the Academy’s best film of the year is almost invariably the winner for best direction and for best screenplay (whether original or adapted).
Best Animated Feature Film: Ratatouille
Brad Bird’s Ratatouille is the most widely praised animated feature of 2007. And it was a box-office hit. Can’t beat the combination of prestige and dollar signs.
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