Encounters at the End of the World
BEST DOCUMENTARY, FEATURE
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
This is another specialty category that's hard to hazard a guess.
- The critically acclaimed Sundance winner Man on Wire is the only shoo-in, unless there's another Hoop Dreams or The Thin Blue Line upset.
- I.O.U.S.A. is quite relevant — the title says it all;
- Standard Operating Procedure comes from the hands of Errol Morris, whose The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara won the 2003 Oscar in this category;
- Trouble the Water is another doc that has been greeted by solid reviews and that has been included in various top-ten lists;
- Encounters at the End of the World could be the Academy's way of saying sorry to Werner Herzog, whose widely praised Grizzly Man failed to be nominated in 2005.
Runners-up:
- Blessed Is the Match: The Life and Death of Hannah Senesh, about Jews, Nazis, and World War II, documentary voters' favorite theme;
- The Betrayal (Nerakhoon), Ellen Kuras' look at an immigrant family's experience in the United States;
- and Glass: A Portrait of Philip in Twelve Parts, a strong possibility considering that Philip Glass is, to a certain extent, an industry "insider." (Well, at least he has scored a number of films.)
Waltz with Bashir
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Kung Fu Panda
WALL-E
Waltz with Bashir
Barring a major upset, the three films listed above will be found in the Academy's own shortlist. The only other possibility, I'd say, is Bolt, which could take the Kung Fu Panda spot. WALL-E, the big favorite, even made history by becoming the first animated film to win the Los Angeles Film Critics' best picture award.
Waltz with Bashir would have to be very unlucky to be shut out from both the foreign-language and the animated feature categories. Personally, I think it'll be very lucky, ending up with two nominations.
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Film, Foreign Film
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Director, Screenplay
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Actor, Actress
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress