This is the most difficult acting category to predict simply because thus far there haven't been any real standouts — in terms of Oscar p.r., that is. The strongest bet is Cannes winner Christoph Waltz, whose film has grossed more than $100 million in the US/Canada market. That always helps. And in case he does get nominated, Christopher Plummer may actually end up winning the 2010 Oscar for best supporting actor even if only because of his veteran-ness. But that's not guaranteed. (See The Lauren Bacall Oscar Story.)

Other possibilities, some more (or less) likely than others: Matt Damon in Invictus (above) — it's always good to have a star pushed in a supporting role (good for the star, that is, not for real supporting players); Peter Sarsgaard in An Education, depending on how he's going to be pushed (lead or supporting); ditto for George Clooney in The Men Who Stare at Goats; and Bill Murray in Get Low (if it gets a 2009 release).

Also: Liev Schreiber in Taking Woodstock (above; the film was a flop, but crossdressing is always a plus); Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker; Alec Baldwin in It's Complicated; Richard Kind in A Serious Man; Nicholas Hoult in A Single Man; Robert Duvall and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Road; Richard Gere in Amelia; Woody Harrelson in The Messenger; and Heath Ledger in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus.

And Stanley Tucci again, who may get a nod for the lighter Julie & Julia instead of the darker The Lovely Bones.

But then again, the five best supporting actor Oscar nominees of 2010 could be five performers totally ignored in this piece.

Here are a couple of sources, however tentative: Rope of Silicon and Dave Karger's Oscar Watch