2010 Oscar Predictions
Best Foreign Language Film
Ajami, Scandar Copti and Yaron Shani (Israel)
A Prophet, Jacques Audiard (France)
The Secret in Their Eyes, Juan Jose Campanella (Argentina)
The White Ribbon, Michael Haneke (Germany)
Winter in Wartime, Martin Koolhoven (The Netherlands)
The best foreign language film category is especially difficult to predict because only a group of about 20 Academy members will decide on the five nominees. Thanks to that set-up, Pedro Almodovar's Volver — sure to get nominated three years ago — was left out.
The White Ribbon, A Prophet, and The Secret in Their Eyes are about as sure to be included as possible. (But don't forget Volver.) Winter in Wartime would have been a shoo-in if the Academy's old set-up were still in place — it's set during World War II, those foreign-language film voting members' all-time favorite era. But under the new set-up, three years ago Paul Verhoeven's Dutch-made World War II-set The Black Book ended up not getting a nomination. So, who knows?
Ajami, last year's winner of the Israeli Academy Award, is the iffiest one on the list above. Claudia Llosa's Berlin winner The Milk of Sorrow (Peru) and Warwick Thornton's Australian Film Institute winner Samson & Delilah (Australia) are two other strong possibilities. But don't be too shocked if two little-known films, Ermek Tursunov's Kelin (Kazakhstan) and Stephan Komandarev's The World Is Big and Salvation Lurks around the Corner (Bulgaria), end up shortlisted.
Photos: A Prophet (Roger Arpajou / Sony Pictures Classics); The White Ribbon (Films du Losange / Sony Pictures Classics); Winter in Wartime (Isabella Films); Ajami (Inosan / Vertigo); The World Is Big and Salvation Lurks around the Corner (Vertigo / Inforg / Pallas)