I believe the SAG Award nominations in the best supporting actor category will match those of the Golden Globes: Matt Damon for his South African rugby player in Invictus, Christopher Plummer for his Leo Tolstoy in The Last Station, Woody Harrelson for his military man in The Messenger, Stanley Tucci for his psycho murderer in The Lovely Bones, and Christoph Waltz for his multilingual Nazi in Inglourious Basterds.

In Waltz's case, this is one instance when a performance in a language other than English shouldn't be detrimental to an actor's popularity among SAG voters. After all, Waltz is one of the stars of a movie starring Hollywood insider Brad Pitt and directed by another insider, Quentin Tarantino. And one distributed by The Weinstein Co. (Remember Miramax and the Oscars?) On top of that, his character does speak English in the film.

For whatever reason, this is the least competitive race in the acting categories. Anthony Mackie has a plausible chance of being included if SAG voters really like The Hurt Locker, while Alfred Molina has an equally plausible chance if SAG voters really like either him or An Education or both. Alec Baldwin has a plausible chance especially if It's Complicated gets nominated in the best ensemble category. Now, which one of the five would one those three replace? That's a hard call. My bet would be Woody Harrelson — though I firmly believe that the five Chosen Ones will be the actors listed at the top of this article.

Addendum: One important potential contender is Christopher McKay for Me and Orson Welles. McKay could sneak in in Harrelson's place — if SAG voters got lots of M&OW screeners. Else, there goes McKay's chances, as the movie hasn't gotten a whole lot of exposure.

Possibilities:

Alfred Molina, An Education (above, with Cara Seymour, Carey Mulligan, Peter Sarsgaard)

Christopher McKay for Me and Orson Welles

Alec Baldwin in It’s Complicated

Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker

Less likely:

Steve Martin in It’s Complicated (above, with Meryl Streep, Alec Baldwin, Lake Bell)

Nicholas Hoult in A Single Man

Quinton Aaron, The Blind Side

Paul Schneider, Bright Star

Peter Sarsgaard in An Education (if earmarked in the supporting category)

George Clooney in The Men Who Stare at Goats

Liev Schreiber in Taking Woodstock

Robert Duvall in The Road

Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Road

Richard Kind in A Serious Man

Heath Ledger in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus

Stanley Tucci in Julie & Julia

Lenny Kravitz in Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

Richard Gere in Amelia