Will SAG Award voters like Precious and its individual cast members more than, say, US film critics and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association? Will they like Nine better? Will they like The Lovely Bones better? Will they like An Education better?

Depending on how much they like those movies, all four of which are actors' showcases, some of the performers listed below may go from "strong possibilities" to nominees, or from "possibilities" to "strong possibilities," or from "less likely" to "possibilities." In other words, this year the best supporting actress category is damn hard to predict.

The actresses listed above are the same ones who received Golden Globe nominations yesterday. Two of those are sure to be shortlisted: Mo'Nique for her Mom from Hell in Precious and Anna Kendrick for abetting George Clooney in Up in the Air. The other three are "very strong possibilities," but their status isn't guaranteed.

Marion Cotillard is the one getting most of the good notices for Nine, but Penélope Cruz has her name, her likability quotient, and her performance in Broken Embraces to help her get a nod from her fellow actors. Vera Farmiga has the less showy role in Up in the Air, but she's a well-respected actress whose time may have finally come. As a plus, Up in the Air may well land a best ensemble nomination. Julianne Moore is another well-respected performer in a well-respected film, Tom Ford's A Single Man. And she gets drunk, too. That's acting. (I've taken lots of acting lessons; I know what it's like.)

But then Samantha Morton's war widow has been getting some great notices for The Messenger and Emma Thompson got her own great notices for An Education. We shall see.

Strong possibilities:

Samantha Morton, The Messenger

Emma Thompson, An Education

Possibilities:

Mélanie Laurent, Inglourious Basterds

Judi Dench, Nine

Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones

Rachel Weisz, The Lovely Bones (if labeled as a supporting actress)

Less likely:

Nicole Kidman, Nine (above, with Daniel Day-Lewis)

Kate Hudson, Nine

Sophia Loren, Nine

Stacy Ferguson, Nine

Kathy Bates, Cheri

Kerry Fox, Bright Star

Cara Seymour, An Education

Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies

Mariah Carey, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

Paula Patton, Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire

Diane Kruger, Inglourious Basterds

Imelda Staunton, Taking Woodstock

Betty White, The Proposal (White will be getting a Life Achievement Award at the 2010 ceremony)

Melissa Leo, Everybody’s Fine