Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker (Jonathan Olley / Summit Entertainment)
Thus far, The Hurt Locker is the top choice among American film critics. The Iraq War drama directed by Kathryn Bigelow and written by Mark Boal, has won about a dozen awards from US-based critics' groups, including those from the country's three largest metropolitan areas: New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago.
Although The Hurt Locker is surely going to get an Oscar nomination come next February, the film's chances of actually winning the award remain iffy in spite of a SAG nomination (and likely win) for best ensemble. Either Jason Reitman's dramatic comedy Up in the Air, in which George Clooney plays a corporate-downsizing expert, or James Cameron's generally well-received box-office phenomenon Avatar could end up taking home the golden statuette.
One problem with Avatar is that its spectacle, in order to be truly effective, must be watched on the big screen and in 3D. Academy members watching the movie at regular screenings will not get its full impact, while those watching screeners at home will end up short on sensorial stimuli. That may lead to a vote for, say, Quentin Tarantino's Inglourious Basterds, which has had a surprising resurgence in the last few weeks, or Lee Daniels' Precious.
Rob Marshall's Nine, Pete Docter's Up, and Lone Scherfig's An Education don't stand a chance to win, though they may well get nominated while Up quite possibly will nab the Academy's best animated feature award.
Missing from the list below is Peter Jackson's The Lovely Bones, probably the greatest critical disappointment of the season. (With Nine a close second.)
The list below includes nearly all US-based critics groups (it'll be updated as more results are announced early next year), in addition to the Gotham and National Board of Review Awards, Golden Globe, Spirit Award, and SAG nominations, plus a handful of festival awards.
The Hurt Locker – National Society of Film Critics, Gotham, Washington, Satellite (drama), San Francisco, Oklahoma, New York, Los Angeles, Las Vegas, Houston, Chicago, Boston, Austin, plus SAG ensemble, Critics Choice, Golden Globe (drama) nominations
Up in the Air – National Board of Review, Washington, Utah, St. Louis, Indiana, Southeastern, Florida, Dallas-Ft. Worth, plus Critics Choice, Golden Globe (drama) nominations
Inglourious Basterds – Toronto (tie), San Diego, Phoenix, plus SAG ensemble, Critics Choice, Golden Globe (drama) nominations
Precious – Sundance, plus SAG ensemble, Critics Choice, Golden Globe (drama), Spirit nominations
Nine – Satellite (comedy/musical), plus SAG ensemble, Critics Choice, Golden Globe (comedy / musical) nominations
Avatar – New York Online, plus Critics Choice, Golden Globe (drama) nominations
Up – Detroit, plus Critics Choice nomination
An Education – SAG ensemble, Critics Choice nominations
(500) Days of Summer – Golden Globe (comedy / musical), Spirit nominations
Hunger – Toronto (tie)
It's Complicated – Golden Globe nomination (comedy / musical)
Julie & Julia – Golden Globe nomination (comedy / musical)
The Hangover – Golden Globe nomination (comedy / musical)
