Best Foreign Language Film

Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon

This is another category (see best actor – comedy or musical) that is hard to predict because of the absence of a clear front-runner. The closest to a "favorite" is Michael Haneke's The White Ribbon, winner of the Palme d'Or at Cannes and of several critics' awards in the United States. Working for it: Prestige, relevance, seriousness. Working against it: Starkness, darkness, mean children.

If Hollywood Foreign Press Association voters decide there's too much starkness, darkness, and too many evil brats in the world as is, then Giuseppe Tornatore's Baaria will likely be their choice. The sentimental, semi-autobiographical drama featuring music by Ennio Morricone has received a few pans, but it has its enthusiasts as well. It's also the kind of sweeping melodrama that, if well-marketed, becomes a box-office hit. The fact that Baaria was made by the same guy responsible for Cinema Paradiso probably doesn't hurt, or that the film stars some of the greatest-looking performers working in films anywhere in the world: Francesco Scianna, Margareth Madè, and Raoul Bova.

Pedro Almodóvar's Broken Embraces, which stars Lluís Homar and Goya Award nominee Penelope Cruz; Jacques Audiard's A Prophet, starring BAFTA's Orange Rising Star nominee Tahar Rahim; and Sebastian Silva's The Maid would all be respectable winners as well. Broken Embraces has won several awards from US critics' groups, The Prophet won the Grand Prix at Cannes and was the National Board of Review's foreign film of choice, and The Maid earned star Catalina Saavedra a breakthrough performer trophy at the Gotham Awards ceremony.

Photo: The White Ribbon (Films du Losange / Sony Pictures Classics)