Amy Adams or Anne Hathaway? Best Supporting Actress NYFCC predictions
[See previous post: "Jennifer Lawrence or Jessica Chastain? New York Film Critics Awards Best Actress Predictions."] For Best Supporting Actress, I'm betting that the New York Film Critics Circle will choose Amy Adams for three movies: the Clint Eastwood box office flop Trouble with the Curve, Paul Thomas Anderson's well-received box office disappointment The Master, and Walter Salles' upcoming (in the U.S.) all-star drama On the Road. (Image: Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams The Master.) [List of New York Film Critics 2012 winners.]
Why Amy Adams? Well, not only Adams is a well-known and well-liked performer, but she also has those three movies this year, much like Jessica Chastain last year (The Help, Take Shelter, and The Tree of Life). That helps. (Note: Actually, Chastain appeared in something like 378 movies last year. She won for the aforementioned three titles.)
It also helps that two of Amy Adams' movies – The Master and On the Road – aren't big studio releases. Curiously, in the last three decades or so the NYFCC has tended to pick Best Supporting Actress performances in smaller and/or independent movies, e.g., Mo'Nique in Precious, Penélope Cruz in Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Maria Bello in A History of Violence, Patricia Clarkson in Far from Heaven, Helen Mirren in Gosford Park, Lisa Kudrow in The Opposite of Sex, Gong Li in the Mandarin-language Farewell My Concubine, and Judy Davis in Barton Fink and Naked Lunch, among others.
Anne Hathaway and other Best Supporting Actress possibilities
That's chiefly the reason why I didn't select everybody's favorite, Anne Hathaway. Admittedly, in her favor Hathaway – much like Jennifer Lawrence – has two strong and radically different 2012 movies: Christopher Nolan's The Dark Knight Rises and Tom Hooper's Les Misérables. Both, however, are big-studio releases. Who knows? Maybe we'll have a tie this year.
Other Best Supporting Actress possibilities include Sally Field for Steven Spielberg's Lincoln, Helen Hunt for The Sessions, Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook, Susan Sarandon for Cloud Atlas and Arbitrage, Anna Kendrick for End of Watch, Melissa Leo for Flight, Rosemarie DeWitt for Your Sister's Sister, Helena Bonham Carter and Samantha Barks and Amanda Seyfried for Les Misérables, and last but not least Kristen Stewart for On the Road.
Best Supporting Actor: Philip Seymour Hoffman
For Best Supporting Actor I'm betting on Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master. Hoffman's L. Ron Hubbardish character is the sort of dark, shady characterization the New York Film Critics tend to appreciate. Recent NYFCC Best Supporting Actor winners include Albert Brooks for Drive, Mark Ruffalo for The Kids Are All Right, Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds, Josh Brolin for Milk, Javier Bardem for No Country for Old Men, Jackie Earle Haley for Little Children, Clive Owen for Closer, and (the somewhat "shady" closeted gay husband) Dennis Quaid in Far from Heaven. You get the picture.
The other key Best Supporting Actor contender is another shady character, Leonardo DiCaprio in Quentin Tarantino's Django Unchained. Two more: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln and Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook.
Other possibilities include Michael Peña for End of Watch, Sam Rockwell for Seven Psychopaths, Alan Arkin for Argo, Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike, and Édgar Ramírez for Zero Dark Thirty. At this stage, The Dark Knight Rises' Tom Hardy, the movie villain to end all movie villains, seems to have fallen off the awards-season radar. Addendum: But Skyfall's Javier Bardem should be taken seriously...
Ah, in case you're wondering how accurate were my New York Film Critics Awards predictions last year, here's the first of a handful of articles on the topic. And those were the eventual NYFCC winners.
Joaquin Phoenix, Amy Adams The Master photo: The Weinstein Company.