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Jennifer Lawrence, Daniel Day-Lewis: SAG Awards Predictions and Potential Surprises

SAG Awards Marion Cotillard Rust and BoneSAG Awards 2013 Predictions: Marion Cotillard may lead French charge

The SAG Awards 2013 nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. In the last two decades, the Screen Actors Guild Awards have been solid predictors of the Academy Awards. Solid – not flawless. Each year, some SAG Award nominee or other is left out of the Oscar race. (Image: Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone.)

Last year, for instance, there were three SAG Award nominees who failed to get matching Academy Award nods: Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), and Armie Hammer (J. Edgar). Additionally, Best Cast SAG Award nominee Bridesmaids was nowhere to be found on the Academy Awards' (lengthier) Best Picture roster. Having said that, two notable absentees at last year's SAG Awards – Shame's Michael Fassbender and Drive's Albert Brooks – were also absent from the Academy Awards' list of nominated actors.

Also worth mentioning is that SAG voters may love several performances in one single film, which then fails to get a Best Cast nomination. A recent example: Jason Reitman's Up in the Air, which earned nods for George Clooney, Vera Farmiga, and Anna Kendrick – but not for Best Cast.

Here are a few more things to remember about the SAG Awards:

  • Critics' favorites don't necessarily make the cut – e.g., last year's Albert Brooks for Drive.
  • Although SAG Award voters tend to ignore non-English-language films, Michael Haneke's French-language Amour is this year's The Artist (in terms of buzz) – minus The Weinstein Company's awards-season machine. Directed by Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist earned Jean Dujardin an unexpected Best Actor SAG Award and Bérénice Bejo a Best Supporting Actress nod. Amour's potential contenders include Emmanuelle Riva, Jean-Louis Trintignant, and Isabelle Huppert. Additionally, Best Actress Oscar winner Marion Cotillard is back in Jacques Audiard's drama Rust and Bone. That could mean a strong French presence at the SAG Awards; in fact, it could mean the strongest "not in the English language" presence since the first SAG Awards were announced back in 1994.
  • Benh Zeitlin's Beasts of the Southern Wild has been deemed ineligible for this year's SAG Awards*.
  • Early and widely disseminated screeners are crucial for a movie's SAG Award success. That was reportedly a key reason for Demián Bichir's unexpected Best Actor nomination for A Better Life last year.

And finally, after realizing that Marcel Carné's beautifully acted Children of Paradise is also ineligible for this year's SAG Awards (it was first released in 1945, which means the French presence won't be as strong at the SAG Awards 2013 as it could have been), I've included my Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Cast predictions in the follow-up post.

* Beasts of the Southern Wild was made outside the provisions of the Screen Actors Guild's contractual rules. That means not only the use of non-professional actors, but also actors' wages that fall below SAG's stipulated minimum. Made for a reported $1.8 million (not including marketing and distribution expenses), Beasts of the Southern Wild grossed $11.24 million at the North American box office.

Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone photo: Sony Pictures Classics.

Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings PlaybookJennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) among SAG Awards 2013 Best Actress contenders

Jennifer Lawrence; several Silver Linings Playbook cast members; and several French, British, and Australian performers are all strong possibilities for the SAG Awards 2013. Below is my list(s) of predictions, including a number of potential surprises. (Image: Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook.)

SAG Awards 2013 Best Actress

  • Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
  • Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
  • Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
  • Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
  • Other Best Actress possibilities: Naomi Watts, The Impossible; Helen Mirren, Hitchcock; Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel; Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea; Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina; Emayatzy Corinealdi, Middle of Nowhere; Laura Linney, Hyde Park on the Hudson.

    Nothing is impossible: Barbra Streisand, The Guilt Trip; Bette Midler, Parental Guidance; Melanie Lynskey, Hello, I Must Be Going; Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed; Emily Blunt, Your Sister's Sister; Michelle Williams, Take This Waltz; Maggie Smith, Quartet.

    SAG Awards 2013 Best Actor

  • Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
  • Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
  • Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables
  • Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
  • Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Other Best Actor possibilities: Denzel Washington, Flight; John Hawkes, The Sessions; Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock; Richard Gere, Arbitrage; Ben Affleck, Argo; Matt Damon, Promised Land; Jake Gyllenhaal, End of Watch; Garrett Hedlund, On the Road; Suraj Sharma, Life of Pi; Bill Murray, Hyde Park on the Hudson.

Nothing is impossible: Tom Hanks, Cloud Atlas; Thure Lindhardt, Keep the Lights On; Clint Eastwood, Trouble with the Curve; Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained; and Limo Movie actors Denis Lavant and Robert Pattinson for, respectively, Holy Motors and Cosmopolis.

SAG Awards 2013 Best Supporting Actress

  • Amy Adams, The Master
  • Sally Field, Lincoln
  • Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables
  • Helen Hunt, The Sessions
  • Amanda Seyfried, Les Misérables

Other Best Supporting Actress possibilities: Susan Sarandon, Arbitrage; Melissa Leo, Kelly Reilly, Flight; Ann Dowd, Compliance; Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister's Sister; Kristen Stewart, On the Road; Jennifer Ehle, Zero Dark Thirty; Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook; Kerry Washington, Django Unchained; Isabelle Huppert, Amour; Judi Dench, Skyfall; Samantha Barks, Helena Bonham Carter, Les Misérables.

Nothing is impossible: Anna Kendrick, End of Watch; Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy; Frances McDormand, Promised Land; Noomi Rapace, Prometheus; Scarlett Johansson, Hitchcock; Selma Blair, Dark Horse; Pauline Collins, Quartet; Lorraine Toussaint, Middle of Nowhere; Gloria Reuben, Lincoln; Emma Watson, The Perks of Being a Wallflower; Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel; Penélope Cruz, To Rome with Love.

SAG Awards 2013 Best Supporting Actor

  • Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
  • Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
  • Michael Peña, End of Watch
  • Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

Other Best Supporting Actor possibilities: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook; Javier Bardem, Skyfall; Alan Arkin, John Goodman, Argo; Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike; Eddie Redmayne, Sacha Baron Cohen, Les Misérables; Jude Law, Anna Karenina; Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Lincoln; William H. Macy, The Sessions; Jason Clarke, Zero Dark Thirty.

Nothing is impossible: Ezra Miller, The Perks of Being a Wallflower; Hal Holbrook, Promised Land; Tom Hiddleston, The Avengers; Tom Hardy, Michael Caine, The Dark Knight Rises; Bruce Willis, Edward Norton, Moonrise Kingdom; Paul Giamatti, Cosmopolis; Irrfan Khan, Life of Pi; Tom Cruise, Rock for Ages, and Michael Fassbender, Prometheus – at one point two quite likely awards-season candidates.

SAG Awards 2013 Best Cast

  • Ben Affleck's Argo
  • Steven Spielberg's Lincoln
  • Tom Hooper's Les Misérables
  • David O. Russell's Silver Linings Playbook
  • Kathryn Bigelow's Zero Dark Thirty

Other Best Cast possibilities: Amour; Flight; The Master; Life of Pi; The Hunger Games; On the Road; The Dark Knight Rises; Django Unchained; Moonrise Kingdom; The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel; Hitchcock; Arbitrage; The Sessions; Hyde Park on Hudson.

Nothing is impossible: Seven Psychopaths; Promised Land; End of Watch; Cosmopolis; Holy Motors; Butter; The Impossible; The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey; Your Sister's Sister; To Rome with Love; The Avengers; Magic Mike; Skyfall; Middle of Nowhere; Keep the Lights On.

Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook photo: The Weinstein Company.

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