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TWILIGHT Movies’ Weekend Box Office Pattern: Robert Pattinson BREAKING DAWN PART 2

Robert Pattinson Breaking Dawn Part 2Robert Pattinson Breaking Dawn Part 2 weekend box office: Can it surpass Breaking Dawn Part 1?

Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, and Taylor Lautner’s Breaking Dawn Part 2 trailed both Breaking Dawn Part 1 and New Moon on its first day out in North America. (See more details below.) Yet, the fifth and last Twilight movie earned about $6m-12 million more than early Friday estimates indicated. Now, could the Bill Condon-directed Breaking Dawn Part 2 "overperform" once again by Sunday evening? (Photo: Robert Pattinson Breaking Dawn Part 2.)

From the get-go, Summit Entertainment had been expecting $135 million this weekend (Nov. 16-18), including grosses from Thursday 10 p.m. and midnight showtimes. Without the advantage of Thursday 10 p.m. screenings (and without factoring in higher ticket prices), Condon’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 scored $138.12 million on its debut weekend last November and Chris Weitz’s New Moon $142.83 million in Nov. 2009. (David Slade’s Eclipse opened on a Wednesday in early summer 2010; for that reason, first weekend comparisons would be all but meaningless.)

New Moon seems all but unbeatable at this stage (especially if inflation is factored in), but could on-screen (and apparently off-screen) lovebirds Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart’s last Twilight movie surpass its immediate predecessor at the (opening-weekend) domestic box office?

Saturday box office figures are unavailable at this stage, so it’s impossible to tell whether or not Breaking Dawn Part 2 has been following the same pattern as the previous Twilight entries that opened on a Friday in November: Breaking Dawn Part 1 was down 44 percent on Saturday and 34 percent on Sunday; New Moon was down 42 percent on Saturday and 34 percent on Sunday; and Catherine Hardwicke’s original Twilight, which opened in November 2008, was down 41 percent on Saturday and 42 percent on Sunday. Those are all relatively steep drops, even taking into account those films’ strong midnight grosses.

Breaking Dawn Part 2 vs. previous Twilight movies, all featuring Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, and Taylor Lautner

If Breaking Dawn Part 2 follows that same pattern, there’s absolutely no chance it’ll surpass either Breaking Dawn Part 1 or New Moon domestically, though it should at least land very close to Part 1. On Friday, Breaking Dawn Part 2 raked in an estimated $71.2 million in North American theaters according to figures found at Box Office Mojo. As mentioned above, that Friday total includes an estimated $30.4 million from Thursday 10 p.m. and midnight screenings. [See also: "Breaking Dawn Part 2: One of the top single-day grossers ever."]

For comparison’s sake: Without any Thursday 10 p.m. screenings, Breaking Dawn Part 1 brought in $71.64 million on its first day out; New Moon scored $72.7m; and the original Twilight $69.63m. (On a Wednesday, Eclipse opened with $68.53m.)

In sum: for Breaking Dawn Part 2 to surpass at least its immediate predecessor, it must have a less radical Saturday and/or Sunday drop-off rate. However less likely, a more successful route for the final Twilight movie would be if it follows a similar path to that of Daniel Craig’s third James Bond movie: Last weekend, Skyfall performed quite a bit better than both Quantum of Solace or Casino Royale on Saturday, it second day out; that helped the well-received Bond flick to surpass many pundits’ box office expectations and reach an impressive $88.36 million by Sunday evening.

Official weekend box office estimates will be released on Sunday morning. Only then will we have a better idea as to how loud will be The Twilight Saga movies’ final domestic box office bang. Confirmation will come on Monday, when weekend box office actuals are released.

Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, Taylor Lautner topline Breaking Dawn Part 2 cast

Besides stars Taylor Lautner, Kristen Stewart, and Robert Pattinson, the top-grossing female-led movie franchise to date features an extensive cast that includes, among dozens of others, Robert Pattinson’s fellow Cullen Clan members: Elizabeth Reaser, Peter Facinelli, Ashley Greene, Nikki Reed, Jackson Rathbone, Kellan Lutz, and new addition Mackenzie Foy.

Robert Pattinson Breaking Dawn Part 2 photo: Andrew Cooper / Summit Entertainment.

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