Robert Pattinson Breaking Dawn Part 2 weekend box office: Can it surpass Breaking Dawn Part 1?
Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, and Taylor Lautner’s Breaking Dawn Part 2 trailed both Breaking Dawn Part 1 and New Moon on its first day out in North America. (See more details below.) Yet, the fifth and last Twilight movie earned about $6m-12 million more than early Friday estimates indicated. Now, could the Bill Condon-directed Breaking Dawn Part 2 "overperform" once again by Sunday evening? (Photo: Robert Pattinson Breaking Dawn Part 2.)
From the get-go, Summit Entertainment had been expecting $135 million this weekend (Nov. 16-18), including grosses from Thursday 10 p.m. and midnight showtimes. Without the advantage of Thursday 10 p.m. screenings (and without factoring in higher ticket prices), Condon’s Breaking Dawn Part 1 scored $138.12 million on its debut weekend last November and Chris Weitz’s New Moon $142.83 million in Nov. 2009. (David Slade’s Eclipse opened on a Wednesday in early summer 2010; for that reason, first weekend comparisons would be all but meaningless.)
New Moon seems all but unbeatable at this stage (especially if inflation is factored in), but could on-screen (and apparently off-screen) lovebirds Robert Pattinson and Kristen Stewart’s last Twilight movie surpass its immediate predecessor at the (opening-weekend) domestic box office?
Saturday box-office figures are unavailable at this stage, so it’s impossible to tell whether or not Breaking Dawn Part 2 has been following the same pattern as the previous Twilight entries that opened on a Friday in November: Breaking Dawn Part 1 was down 44% on Saturday and 34% on Sunday; New Moon was down 42% on Saturday and 34% on Sunday; and Catherine Hardwicke’s original Twilight, which opened in November 2008, was down 41% on Saturday and 42% on Sunday. Those are all relatively steep drops, even taking into account those films’ strong midnight grosses.
Breaking Dawn Part 2 vs. previous Twilight movies, all featuring Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, and Taylor Lautner
If Breaking Dawn Part 2 follows that same pattern, there’s absolutely no chance it’ll surpass either Breaking Dawn Part 1 or New Moon domestically, though it should at least land very close to Part 1. On Friday, Breaking Dawn Part 2 raked in an estimated $71.2 million in North American theaters according to figures found at Box Office Mojo. As mentioned above, that Friday total includes an estimated $30.4 million from Thursday 10 p.m. and midnight screenings. [See also: "Breaking Dawn Part 2: One of the top single-day grossers ever."]
For comparison’s sake: Without any Thursday 10 p.m. screenings, Breaking Dawn Part 1 brought in $71.64 million on its first day out; New Moon scored $72.7m; and the original Twilight $69.63m. (On a Wednesday, Eclipse opened with $68.53m.)
In sum: for Breaking Dawn Part 2 to surpass at least its immediate predecessor, it must have a less radical Saturday and/or Sunday drop-off rate. However less likely, a more successful route for the final Twilight movie would be if it follows a similar path to that of Daniel Craig’s third James Bond movie: Last weekend, Skyfall performed quite a bit better than both Quantum of Solace or Casino Royale on Saturday, it second day out; that helped the well-received Bond flick to surpass many pundits’ box-office expectations and reach an impressive $88.36 million by Sunday evening.
Official weekend box-office estimates will be released on Sunday morning. Only then will we have a better idea as to how loud will be The Twilight Saga movies’ final domestic box-office bang. Confirmation will come on Monday, when weekend box-office actuals are released.
Robert Pattinson, Kristen Stewart, Taylor Lautner topline Breaking Dawn Part 2 cast
Besides stars Taylor Lautner, Kristen Stewart, and Robert Pattinson, the top-grossing female-led movie franchise to date features an extensive cast that includes, among dozens of others, Robert Pattinson’s fellow Cullen Clan members: Elizabeth Reaser, Peter Facinelli, Ashley Greene, Nikki Reed, Jackson Rathbone, Kellan Lutz, and new addition Mackenzie Foy.
Robert Pattinson Breaking Dawn Part 2 photo: Andrew Cooper / Summit Entertainment.