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SAG Awards 2013 Predictions: Will Marion Cotillard Lead French Charge?

SAG Awards Marion Cotillard Rust and BoneSAG Awards 2013 Predictions: Marion Cotillard may lead French charge

The SAG Awards 2013 nominations will be announced tomorrow morning. In the last two decades, the Screen Actors Guild Awards have been solid predictors of the Academy Awards. Solid – not flawless. Each year, some SAG Award nominee or other is left out of the Oscar race. (Image: Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone.)

Last year, for instance, there were three SAG Award nominees who failed to get matching Academy Award nods: Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), and Armie Hammer (J. Edgar). Additionally, Best Cast SAG Award nominee Bridesmaids was nowhere to be found on the Academy Awards' (lengthier) Best Picture roster. Having said that, two notable absentees at last year's SAG Awards – Shame's Michael Fassbender and Drive's Albert Brooks – were also absent from the Academy Awards' list of nominated actors.

Also worth mentioning is that SAG voters may love several performances in one single film, which then fails to get a Best Cast nomination. A recent example: Jason Reitman's Up in the Air, which earned nods for George Clooney, Vera Farmiga, and Anna Kendrickbut not for Best Cast.

Here are a few more things to remember about the SAG Awards:

  • Critics' favorites don't necessarily make the cut – e.g., last year's Albert Brooks for Drive.
  • Although SAG Award voters tend to ignore non-English-language films, Michael Haneke's French-language Amour is this year's The Artist (in terms of buzz) – minus The Weinstein Company's awards-season machine. Directed by Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist earned Jean Dujardin an unexpected Best Actor SAG Award and Bérénice Bejo a Best Supporting Actress nod. Amour's potential contenders include Emmanuelle Riva, Jean-Louis Trintignant, and Isabelle Huppert. Additionally, Best Actress Oscar winner Marion Cotillard is back in Jacques Audiard's drama Rust and Bone. That could mean a strong French presence at the SAG Awards; in fact, it could mean the strongest "not in the English language" presence since the first SAG Awards were announced back in 1994.
  • Benh Zeitlin's Beasts of the Southern Wild has been deemed ineligible for this year's SAG Awards*.
  • Early and widely disseminated screeners are crucial for a movie's SAG Award success. That was reportedly a key reason for Demián Bichir's unexpected Best Actor nomination for A Better Life last year.

And finally, after realizing that Marcel Carné's beautifully acted Children of Paradise is also ineligible for this year's SAG Awards (it was first released in 1945, which means the French presence won't be as strong at the SAG Awards 2013 as it could have been), I've included my Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Cast predictions in the follow-up post.

* Beasts of the Southern Wild was made outside the provisions of the Screen Actors Guild's contractual rules. That means not only the use of non-professional actors, but also actors' wages that fall below SAG's stipulated minimum. Made for a reported $1.8 million (not including marketing and distribution expenses), Beasts of the Southern Wild grossed $11.24 million at the North American box office.

["SAG Awards 2013 Predictions" continues on the next page. See link below.]

Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone photo: Sony Pictures Classics.

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