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Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Song, Visual Effects

BEST SONG
"Another Way to Die" from Quantum of Solace
"Down to Earth" from WALL-E
"Jai Ho" from Slumdog Millionaire
"Once in a Lifetime" from Cadillac Records
"The Wrestler" from The Wrestler

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Journey to the Center of the Earth

BEST SOUND
Australia
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Quantum of Solace
WALL-E

BEST SOUND EFFECTS
The Dark Knight
Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull
Iron Man

BEST MAKEUP
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Hellboy II: The Golden Army
The Incredible Hulk

Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Film, Foreign Film
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Director, Screenplay
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Documentary, Animated Film
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Actor, Actress
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Cinematography, Editing, Music

Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Cinematography, Editing, Music

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

BEST EDITING
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Iron Man
Slumdog Millionaire
WALL-E

BEST ART DIRECTION
Australia
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Changeling
The Chronicles of Narnia: Prince Caspian
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Duchess

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Australia
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
The Reader
Slumdog Millionaire

Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Film, Foreign Film
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Director, Screenplay
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Documentary, Animated Film
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Actor, Actress
Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor, Supporting [...]

Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

Josh Brolin in Milk

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Josh Brolin (Milk)
Robert Downey Jr. (Tropic Thunder)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (Doubt)
Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight)
Dev Patel (Slumdog Millionaire)
Though about as much a lead in The Dark Knight as Christian Bale, Heath Ledger is (almost) for sure the one who’ll win the best supporting actor Oscar come next February.
Philip Seymour Hoffman should get included for Doubt and Robert Downey Jr. for his politically incorrect actor in Tropic Thunder.
Of the extensive supporting cast in Milk, Josh Brolin is the most likely contender, while Dev Patel, who apparently supports himself in Slumdog Millionaire, should also make the cut thanks to his film’s popularity.
Runners-up: Michael Sheen (Frost/Nixon), as much a lead as Frank Langella, is being [...]

Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Documentary, Animated Film

Encounters at the End of the World

BEST DOCUMENTARY, FEATURE
Encounters at the End of the World
I.O.U.S.A.
Man on Wire
Standard Operating Procedure
Trouble the Water
This is another specialty category that’s hard to hazard a guess.

The critically acclaimed Sundance winner Man on Wire is the only shoo-in, unless there’s another Hoop Dreams or The Thin Blue Line upset.
I.O.U.S.A. is quite relevant — the title says it all;
Standard Operating Procedure comes from the hands of Errol Morris, whose The Fog of War: Eleven Lessons from the Life of Robert S. McNamara won the 2003 Oscar in this category;
Trouble the Water is another doc that has been greeted by solid reviews and that has been [...]

Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Director, Screenplay

Danny Boyle

BEST DIRECTION
Danny Boyle (Slumdog Millionaire)
David Fincher (The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)
Ron Howard (Frost/Nixon)
Christopher Nolan (The Dark Knight)
Gus Van Sant (Milk)
All the nominees match the films found in the best picture list — something that is less common than one might think. Fincher has been getting plenty of recognition from critics’ and other groups, which makes me believe that, despite some unenthusiastic reviews for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, he’ll land a best director nomination come next January.
Doubt director John Patrick Shanley will have to be content with a screenwriting nod.
Runners-up: Mike Leigh (Happy-Go-Lucky), who may pull off another Vera Drake upset and take Ron Howard’s place; Sam Mendes (Revolutionary Road); the idolized Clint Eastwood (Gran [...]

Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Actor, Actress

Richard Jenkins, Hiam Abbass in The Visitor

BEST ACTOR
Clint Eastwood (Gran Torino)
Richard Jenkins (The Visitor)
Frank Langella (Frost/Nixon)
Sean Penn (Milk)
Mickey Rourke (The Wrestler)

Clint Eastwood becomes a sentimental favorite whenever he has a Message to convey;
Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke have been winning awards left and right;
Frank Langella will get his first Oscar nod (a sort of career achievement recognition, like James Garner’s — well-deserved — nomination for Murphy’s Romance back in 1985);
and so will SAG nominee Richard Jenkins.

Runners-up: Unless Dev Patel pulls off a Keisha Castle-Hughes upset (she was pushed as a supporting player for Whale Rider in 2003, but landed a — truly surprising — best actress nod instead), the five [...]

Oscar 2009 Predictions: Best Film, Foreign Film

Oscar 2009 Predictions
 

Michael Sheen, Frank Langella in Frost/Nixon

BEST FILM
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
Slumdog Millionaire has to be there. It’s been winning nearly every film critics’ award in the United States and it has received two SAG Award nominations: best ensemble and a surprising best supporting actor nod for Dev Patel (who, ahem, happens to be the film’s lead).
Frost/Nixon is a prestige production based on a prestige play. The sort of stuff prestige-hungry Academy members tend to go for even when reviewers haven’t been all that kind. Also, Frost/Nixon is an actors’ showcase, and actors comprise the — by far — largest contingent among Academy members. (Note: Initially, I had [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Short Films

Best Makeup
Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End, Ve Neill and Martin Samuel
Of the three nominees, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End boasts the showiest example of movie makeup. For the record, the other two nominees are La Vie en Rose, in which gorgeous Marion Cotillard was transformed into plain Edith Piaf, and Norbit.
 

Best Documentary Short
Sari’s Mother, James Longley
The short film winners are hard to predict because they belong to a "special category" — only the relatively few who prove they have watched all nominated films can vote for the winner. Compounding matters, the shorts, like most foreign-language feature film nominees, aren’t easily available for viewing in the United States.
Now, James Longley’s documentary feature Iraq in Fragments was [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Art Direction, Visual Effects

Best Art Direction
Atonement, Art Direction: Sarah Greenwood; Set Decoration: Katie Spencer
All of this year’s nominees are period pieces, but Atonement is the only one with the "classical European" look that Academy-ites most appreciate.
By the way, the last film with a contemporary setting that won the best art direction Academy Award was the 1979 musical All That Jazz.
 

Best Costume Design
Atonement, Jacqueline Durran
See best art direction. (As in the art direction category, all of this year’s nominees are period pieces.)
The last film with a contemporary setting that won the best costume design Academy Award was the 1994 Australian drag-queen comedy-drama The Adventures of Priscilla, Queen of the Desert.
 

Best Visual Effects
Transformers, Scott Farrar, Scott Benza, Russell Earl and John Frazier
From what I’ve [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Cinematography, Editing, Music

Best Cinematography
There Will Be Blood, Robert Elswit
Robert Elswit won the American Society of Cinematographers award, beating Roger Deakins for two films, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford and No Country for Old Men. Though Deakins does have a chance to win the Oscar for either film, this is one instance where the much overused — and almost invariably absurd — "votes are split; a third party wins" logic actually makes sense. That’s why I predict that Elswit will take home the Oscar.
 

Best Film Editing
No Country for Old Men, "Roderick Jaynes" (Joel and Ethan Coen)
An atmospheric suspense thriller that wins the best film Oscar will most likely also win for best film editing. If, however, Academy-ites feel [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress

Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
George Clooney (for Michael Clayton) might have been the sentimental favorite for he’s a local Hollywood-ite, while Daniel Day-Lewis (above, with Paul Dano), who plays a ruthless oil baron in There Will Be Blood, is an Englishman living in Ireland. Clooney, however, won an Oscar (for Syriana) a mere two years ago, while Day-Lewis’ SAG win has solidified his position as this year’s front-runner.
 

Best Actress: Julie Christie, Away from Her
Until the SAG Awards, it was a three-lane race: veteran Julie Christie for Away from Her, Marion Cotillard for La Vie en Rose, and Ellen Page for Juno — by far the biggest box-office hit among the films nominated in the best actress category. [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Director, Screenplay

Richard Foreman / Miramax Films
Best Director: Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
By now the Coen brothers are veterans; they’ve been around for more than two decades and neither one has ever won a best director Oscar. Joel Coen was nominated in 1996 for Fargo, but lost to Anthony Minghella for The English Patient. (Until The Ladykillers in 2004, in which they were billed as directors, producers [along with a few other names], writers, and editors [as "Roderick Jaynes"], the Coen brothers shared credit for their films by naming Joel the director and Ethan the producer.)
It’s the Coens’ turn now — and they’ve won this year’s DGA Award, the first pair to do so since Robert Wise and [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Film, Foreign Language Film, Documentary, Animated Film

Best Film: No Country for Old Men
Until late last week, things were still somewhat murky in the best film race. No Country for Old Men (above, with Tommy Lee Jones) and There Will Be Blood were the front-runners, while Juno was the fluffy dark horse that could potentially tip the scale against the heavy-drama heavyweights. But after its SAG best ensemble and DGA wins, No Country for Old Men, about a drug deal gone murderously wrong, has become the official front-runner.
 

Best Foreign Language Film: Katyn (Poland)
As I’ve said before, this is the toughest feature-film category to predict. None of the five nominees — Beaufort, 12, The Counterfeiters, Mongol, and Katyn — has been widely reviewed in the United States.
I’d [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Screenplay, Animated Feature

Elle Page, Michael Cera in Juno

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Acting Categories
Best Original Screenplay:

Diablo Cody, Juno
Kelly Masterson, Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead
Tamara Jenkins, The Savages
Brad Bird, Ratatouille
Tony Gilroy, Michael Clayton

Possibly: Steven Zaillian, American Gangster (though actually "inspired" by a magazine article)
 

Mathieu Amalric, Marie-Joseé Croze in The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Best Adapted Screenplay:

Joel and Ethan Coen, No Country for Old Men
Paul Thomas Anderson, There Will Be Blood
Christopher Hampton, Atonement
Ronald Harwood, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Possibly: Sarah Polley, [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Acting Categories

George Clooney in Michael Clayton

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Film, Director, Foreign Language Film
Best Actor:

George Clooney, Michael Clayton
Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Viggo Mortensen, Eastern Promises

Possibly: Denzel Washington, American Gangster; Frank Langella, Starting Out in the Evening; James McAvoy, Atonement; Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street; Emile Hirsch, Into the Wild; Ryan Gosling, Lars and the Real Girl; Tommy Lee Jones, In the Valley of Elah
 

Marion Cotillard in La Vie en Rose
Best Actress:

Julie Christie, Away from Her
Marion Cotillard, La Vie en Rose
Ellen Page, Juno
Angelina Jolie, A [...]

Oscar 2008 Predictions: Best Film, Foreign Language Film

Javier Bardem in No Country for Old Men

I haven’t been following too closely the debates about who will or won’t be nominated for the 2008 Academy Awards, though a few front-runners — No Country for Old Men, There Will Be Blood, Ratatouille, Joel and Ethan Coen, Daniel Day-Lewis, Julie Christie, George Clooney, Marion Cotillard, Ellen Page — have become rather obvious after U.S. critics, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, and the Screen Actors Guild began announcing their winners and/or nominees.
That said, I have also read here and there comments on how this film, that star, or that sound technician (joke) will fare in the voting.
The list below is incomplete and quite likely not all that accurate. The only reason [...]

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