Breaking Dawn Part 2 vs. Skyfall, Lincoln: Post-Thanksgiving North American box office
Breaking Dawn Part 2, starring Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson, and Taylor Lautner, may top the North American box office for the third consecutive weekend. If so, the Bill Condon-directed fantasy will become the second (and last) Twilight movie to achieve that feat, following Breaking Dawn Part 1, which ruled over a generally anemic group of movies in late fall 2011. (Image: Breaking Dawn Part 2 Kristen Stewart as Bella Swan, ready to do battle with James Bond and Abraham Lincoln.)
Notice that I wrote “Breaking Dawn Part 2 … may…” threepeat. In other words, it may not. Remember that the Twilight movies have generally continued their fast downward spiral on their third weekend out at the domestic box office: Condon's Breaking Dawn Part 1 was down 60 percent, David Slade's Eclipse 58 percent, Chris Weitz's New Moon 64 percent, and Catherine Hardwicke's Twilight a more modest 50 percent – though down from more modest heights as well. (The source for those percentages is Box Office Mojo.)
If Breaking Dawn Part 2 is down a very modest 50 percent (modest when compared to previous Twilight sequels), it should easily top the domestic box office, with around $21 million. However, that seems highly unlikely.
So, if Breaking Dawn Part 2 is down a more likely 60 percent, it'll be running neck and neck with two other movies: Sam Mendes / Daniel Craig's James Bond flick Skyfall and Steven Spielberg / Daniel Day-Lewis' Lincoln. Barring a box office twist à la the Breaking Dawn Part 2 finale, all three movies should earn somewhere around $16.5m-$18.5 million. [See also: “Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson Breaking Dawn Part 2 to Become Brazil's Top 2012 Movie?“]
Expect a Bella vs. Bond vs. Abe battle to the death…
Breaking Dawn Part 2 and previous Twilight movies' third-weekend drop-off rates
For the record: In fall 2008, Twilight (which stars only Kristen Stewart and Robert Pattinson) was no. 3 on its second weekend out, trailing the Reese Witherspoon / Vince Vaughn comedy Four Christmases and the animated feature Bolt. In fall 2009, after two weekends on top New Moon trailed the Sandra Bullock blockbuster The Blind Side on weekend no. 3. And in early summer 2010, Eclipse – which opened on a Wednesday – trailed the animated blockbuster Despicable Me on weekend no. 2.
Breaking Dawn Part 2, Skyfall, Lincoln cast members
Besides Kristen Stewart, Robert Pattinson, and Taylor Lautner, Breaking Dawn Part 2 features Elizabeth Reaser, Peter Facinelli, Ashley Greene, Dakota Fanning, Michael Sheen, Mackenzie Foy, Nikki Reed, Mia Maestro, Jackson Rathbone, Kellan Lutz, Billy Burke, Maggie Grace, Rami Malek, Omar Metwally, and Charlie Bewley.
In addition to Daniel Craig, Skyfall features Ben Whishaw, Javier Bardem, Ralph Fiennes, Bérénice Marlohe, Helen McCrory, Albert Finney, Judi Dench, Naomie Harris, Ola Rapace, Michael G. Wilson, and Roy Kinnear.
In Lincoln, Daniel Day-Lewis' fellow players are Tommy Lee Jones, Sally Field, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, James Spader, David Strathairn, Hal Holbrook, Jackie Earle Haley, Jared Harris, Lee Pace (also of Breaking Dawn Part 2), John Hawkes, Tim Blake Nelson, and Bruce McGill.
Brad Pitt Killing Them Softly to open like its title
This weekend's two new wide releases have no chance of making an impact. Despite the presence of Brad Pitt and a Cannes Film Festival pedigree – though reviews were less than ecstatic at that time – Andrew Dominik's The Weinstein Company-distributed Killing Them Softly is expected to open (at 2,424 locations) on the wrong side of the $10 million mark. Besides Brad Pitt, the Killing Them Softly cast includes Ray Liotta, James Gandolfini, Scoot McNairy, Ben Mendelsohn, Sam Shepard, Max Casella, and Garret Dillahunt.
Marcus Dunstan's horror flick The Collection, a sequel to Dunstan's little-seen The Collector, should gross quite a bit less than $5 million at 1,403 sites. The Collection has a rumored $10 million budget – if true, the very fact that the movie got made is a bigger mystery that whatever takes place on screen, considering that its 2009 predecessor grossed a paltry $9.44 million worldwide. The Collection cast includes Josh Stewart, Christopher McDonald, Johanna Braddy, Navi Rawat, Michael Nardelli, Brandon Molale, Lee Tergesen, Shannon Kane, and Arloa Reston.
Kristen Stewart Breaking Dawn Part 2 image: Summit Entertainment.