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Oscar Early Predictions: Michelle Pfeiffer Best Actress Contender?

Abbie Cornish in Bright Star

Abbie Cornish, Bright Star

Frances 'Fanny' Brawne has a relatively brief but intense love affair with poet John Keats

Carey Mulligan, An Education

In 1960s London, a schoolgirl falls for a man in his 30s

Michelle Pfeiffer in Cheri

Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri

An older courtesan introduces a young man to the art of lovemaking

Gabourey 'Gabby' Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

Gabourey 'Gabby' Sidibe, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

An abused pregnant teen is befriended by a compassionate teacher

Meryl Streep in Julie & Julia

Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

Julia Child joyfully introduces dead poultry into American kitchens

A dozen actresses – female actors if you wish – can be considered as very strong candidates for a 2010 best actress nomination (as long as their movies open in LA until December 31). In addition to the five listed above, there are:

Audrey Tautou as modiste Gabrielle Chanel in Coco Before Chanel; Saoirse Ronan as the dead girl overlooking those down below in The Lovely Bones (above); Renée Zellweger in the road movie My One and Only; Hilary Swank as doomed aviatrix Amelia Earhart in Amelia; Helen Mirren as Sofya Tolstoy in The Last Station (The Tempest will apparently be released only in 2010); and Annette Bening as a mother who decades earlier gave up her daughter for adoption in Mother and Child.

Meryl Streep should have had a clause in her contract stipulating that It's Complicated would open only in 2010. That way she'd likely get her 200th Oscar nomination in early 2011. For this year, it's gonna be Julie & Julia.

Yolande Moreau in Seraphine

Other strong best actress possibilities are Zooey Deschanel as the object of Joseph Gordon-Levitt's desire in (500) Days of Summer and César winner Yolande Moreau (above) for Séraphine – as long as she gets recognized by US film critics later in the year. (Who is Marion Cotillard's publicist? Those people should all be calling him/her.)

Penélope Cruz in Broken Embraces

Cotillard, by the way, may be pushed in the best actress category for Nine. Also in the running are Penélope Cruz in Pedro Almodóvar's film noirish Broken Embraces (above); Julianne Moore and Amanda Seyfried in the drama-cum-thriller Chloe; Michelle Monaghan in Trucker; Emily Blunt in Young Victoria; Naomi Watts and Mother and Child; and Rachel Weisz in The Lovely Bones.

Brenda Blethyn in London River

Plus Charlize Theron in either The Road or the box office disappointment The Burning Plain; Samantha Morton in The Messenger; Brenda Blethyn in London River (above); Amy Adams in Julie & Julia; Natalie Portman in Brothers; and Kirsten Dunst in All Good Things.

Pushing it: Sandra Bullock in The Proposal. (Dec. 7 addendum: Surprisingly, Bullock has become a potential contender for the sentimental drama The Blind Side. Michelle Pfeiffer and Abbie Cornish, on the other hand, seem less and less likely to land a nod.)

Addendum: Someone who should be pushed – Hiam Abbass for her beautiful, resolute, and immensely touching widow in Eran Riklis' Lemon Tree.

Addendum II: Lars von Trier's Antichrist has opened in Los Angeles, which makes Charlotte Gainsbourg a potential Oscar contender. The Academy tends to shy away from films revolving around sex (especially the kind of sex found in Antichrist), but Emily Watson did get a nod back in 1996 for von Trier's Breaking the Waves – in which Watson's deeply religious character has sex with just about every available guy in the area. Thus, Gainsbourg, winner of this year's best actress prize at Cannes, is a possibility – perhaps even a strong one if US critics' groups decide to send her some love later this year.

And here's another one: Sophie Okonedo, playing the black daughter of white parents in Skin, set in the South Africa of the 1950s.

Addendum III (Nov. 29): A commenter reminded me of Catalina Saavedra, another possibility if US critics decide to honor her performance as a determined houseworker in the Chilean-made The Maid. She's up for a Gotham Award.

BEST ACTOR

George Clooney, Up in the Air

A professional downsizer finds the frequent-flying love of his life while having to come to terms with his long-lost humanity.

Matt Damon in The Informant!

Matt Damon, The Informant!

A pathological liar helps the FBI nab his employer, a dishonest agribusiness conglomerate.

Marion Cotillard, Daniel Day-Lewis in Nine

<daniel Day-Lewis, Nine (with Marion Cotillard)

In this musicalized remake of Federico Fellini's 8 1/2, Daniel Day-Lewis plays the old Marcello Mastroianni role of the Italian film director trying to cope with the women in his life.

Colin Firth, A Single Man

In 1960s Los Angeles, a gay college professor is determined to kill himself after learning that his lover has died in an accident.

Viggo Mortensen in The Road

Viggo Mortensen, The Road

A man and his son struggle to survive in a post-apocalyptic world.

I'd say that four of the five actors listed above are, if not shoo-ins, at least highly likely Oscar 2010 contenders.

Michael Stuhlbarg in A Serious Man
Michael Stuhlbarg in A Serious Man

The iffiest one in the list is Viggo Mortensen, whose spot could be taken by, say, Morgan Freeman, playing one more honorable presidential character (Nelson Mandela this time) in Clint Eastwood's South Africa-set drama Invictus; Robert Duvall in Get Low, which has been generating some good buzz for the veteran actor whose performances, no matter how ravenous, have earned him five Oscar nods and one win in the last 37 years; or Michael Stuhlbarg as the cross-carrying hero in the Coen brothers' A Serious Man – it all depending on how much love this stage performer gets from US critics later in the year.

Ben Whishaw in Bright Star
Ben Whishaw in Bright Star

Other solid possibilities are: Robert Downey Jr as the weird detective hero in Sherlock Holmes; Joseph Gordon-Levitt as the lovestruck young man in the sleeper hit 500 Days of Summer; Ben Whishaw as poet John Keats in Jane Campion's Bright Star; and Robert De Niro in Everybody's Fine, another old Marcello Mastroianni role, this one that of a widower on his way to meet his somewhat estranged grown children. (The Giuseppe Tornatore 1990 original is way too maudlin for my taste, but I do hope they've kept the deer sequence intact in this remake.)

James McAvoy, Helen Mirren in The Last Station

Addendum: Initially, I had James McAvoy (above, with Helen Mirren) as one of the top best supporting actor contenders for The Last Station. However, McAvoy is being appropriately pushed as the film's lead. (Veteran Christopher Plummer, who'd been mentioned as a possible best actor contender for The Last Station, has been demoted to the supporting category in that film so he can run in the best actor race for The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus.) Anyhow, after being ignored twice – for both The Last King of Scotland and Atonement – perhaps enough Academy members will decide to give McAvoy an Oscar break for his performance as Leo Tolstoy's secretary Valentin Bulgakov.

Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker

Also: Jeremy Renner in The Hurt Locker (above); Mark Wahlberg in The Lovely Bones; Ryan Gosling in All Good Things; Brad Pitt in Inglourious Basterds; Michael Sheen in The Damned United; Peter Sarsgaard in An Education; Ben Foster in The Messenger; Clive Owen in The Boys Are Back; either Jake Gyllenhaal or Tobey Maguire in Brothers; and Liam Neeson in Five Minutes of Heaven.

Hal Holbrook in That Evening SunAnd last but quite probably not least, veteran Hal Holbrook (right) as a Tennessee farmer facing all sorts of problems in That Evening Sun.

Now, it's worth remembering that some of the aforementioned names may be pushed as supporting actors no matter how much screen time they have. Others may not be pushed at all, depending on how much studios and/or distributors want to spend on films that have underperformed (or will underperform) at the box office or that have been (or will be) coolly received by critics. Some of those films may only open in the Los Angeles area in 2010…

Just like last year, the real tight Oscar race will take place among the women. The best actress field has about ten likely candidates, while the best supporting actress race is even more crowded. The best supporting actor category, on the other hand, is wide open because there are thus far few truly strong candidates.

Penélope Cruz in Nine

Penélope Cruz, Nine

A film director's seductive mistress (if she's half as tantalizing in the film as she is in the above photo, Cruz deserves not only a nod but the golden statuette itself)

Anna Kendrick, George Clooney in Up in the Air

Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air

A professional downsizer's trainee

Mo'Nique in Precious

Mo'Nique, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire

A pregnant, illiterate teen's Mom from Hell

Colin Firth, Julianne Moore in A Single Man

Julianne Moore, A Single Man (with Colin Firth)

A married alcoholic pining for an English professor – who just happens to be both gay and suicidal

Emma Thompson in An Education

Emma Thompson, An Education

A school headmistress in 1960s London

The most disputed acting category in the 2010 Oscar race. In addition to the aforementioned five actresses, five others who could easily land a nomination (in case their movies open in the Los Angeles area in 2009 and don't bomb) are:

George Clooney, Vera Farmiga in Up in the Air
Kathy Bates in Cheri

Vera Farmiga, as the object of professional downsizer George Clooney's desire in Up in the Air (above, top photo); Kathy Bates as a concerned mother (and courtesan) in Cheri (above, lower photo); Cara Seymour, as wayward Carey Mulligan's mom in An Education; Judi Dench as Daniel Day-Lewis' confidante in Nine; and Susan Sarandon as dead Saoirse Ronan's granny in The Lovely Bones.

Rachel Weisz in The Lovely Bones

And, in case they're pushed as supporting actresses, these three (potential best actress nominees) are just as likely to be nominated in the supporting category as the aforementioned 10 names: Rachel Weisz as the dead girl's mother in The Lovely Bones (above); Helen Mirren as Leo Tolstoy's wife in The Last Station; and Marion Cotillard as Daniel Day-Lewis' wife in Nine. (Cotillard also has a chance – though considerably more distant – of landing a nomination for Public Enemies.)

Mariah Carey in Precious

Other potential contenders are: Mariah Carey (above) and Paula Patton in Precious; Sissy Spacek, in case Get Low gets a 2009 release; Nicole Kidman, Kate Hudson, Sophia Loren, and Stacy Ferguson in Nine; Kerry Fox in Bright Star; and Samantha Morton, in case she gets pushed in the supporting actress category for The Messenger.

Also, Sigourney Weaver in Avatar (above, with Giovanni Ribisi); Mélanie Laurent and Diane Kruger in Inglourious Basterds; Imelda Staunton in Taking Woodstock; Drew Barrymore, Kate Beckinsale, and Melissa Leo (I'm assuming in the old Michèle Morgan role) in Everybody's Fine; and Cherry Jones and Kerry Washington in Mother and Child.

Alfred Molina, Cara Seymour, Carey Mulligan, Peter Sarsgaard in An Education

Alfred Molina, An Education (with Cara Seymour, Carey Mulligan, Peter Sarsgaard)

An overprotective father worries about his wayward daughter in 1960s London.

Christopher Plummer in The Last Station

Christopher Plummer, The Last Station (with Helen Mirren)

Initially touted as a potential best actor contender, Plummer is getting the supporting treatment for his performance as the elderly Leo Tolstoy. In that category, the veteran actor has a much better chance of landing a nomination. (James McAvoy, formerly in this list for his role in The Last Station, is now in the Oscar 2010 best actor race.)

Paul Schneider in Bright Star

Paul Schneider, Bright Star

John Keats' not too sympathetic best friend Charles Armitage Brown.

Stanley Tucci in The Lovely Bones

Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones

Apparently, nothing lovely about Tucci in this one.

Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

Nazi Col. Hans Landa, fluent in four languages.

This is the most difficult acting category to predict simply because thus far there haven't been any real standouts – in terms of Oscar p.r., that is. The strongest bet is Cannes winner Christoph Waltz, whose film has grossed more than $100 million in the U.S. and Canada market. That always helps. And in case he does get nominated, Christopher Plummer may actually end up winning the 2010 Oscar for best supporting actor even if only because of his veteran-ness. But that's not guaranteed. (See the Lauren Bacall Oscar Story.)

Matt Damon in Invictus

Other possibilities, some more (or less) likely than others: Matt Damon in Invictus (above) – it's always good to have a star pushed in a supporting role (good for the star, that is, not for real supporting players); Peter Sarsgaard in An Education, depending on how he's going to be pushed (lead or supporting); ditto for George Clooney in The Men Who Stare at Goats; and Bill Murray in Get Low (if it gets a 2009 release).

Liev Schreiber in Taking Woodstock

Also: Liev Schreiber in Taking Woodstock (above; the film was a flop, but crossdressing is always a plus); Anthony Mackie in The Hurt Locker; Alec Baldwin in It's Complicated; Richard Kind in A Serious Man; Nicholas Hoult in A Single Man; Robert Duvall and Kodi Smit-McPhee in The Road; Richard Gere in Amelia; Woody Harrelson in The Messenger; and Heath Ledger in The Imaginarium of Dr. Parnassus.

And Stanley Tucci again, who may get a nod for the lighter Julie & Julia instead of the darker The Lovely Bones.

But then again, the five best supporting actor Oscar nominees of 2010 could be five performers totally ignored in this piece.

Best Foreign Language Film

Baaria, Giuseppe Tornatore

Baaria, Giuseppe Tornatore (Italy)

An autobiographical tale set in the director's Sicilian hometown

Forever Enthralled, Chen Kaige

Forever Enthralled, Chen Kaige (China)

Biopic chronicling the life of Mei Lanfang, China's greatest opera star.

I Killed My Mother, Xavier Dolan

I Killed My Mother, Xavier Dolan (Canada)

A young gay man has some serious issues with his mother.

A Prophet, Jacques Audiard (France)

Prison drama in which a young hood learns what it takes to reach the top of that small (and nasty) world.

The White Ribbon by Michael Haneke

The White Ribbon, Michael Haneke (Germany)

As a prelude to both World War I and World War II, a German village unexpectedly becomes the setting of numerous acts of cruelty.

Quality (much like fairness) is in the brain of the judge. (Of course, if we're lucky enough to have a judge who actually has a functioning brain.) In a way, that sort of sums up voting panels, committees, and individuals everywhere, including the perennially reviled Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences' voters who select the five best foreign-language film nominees each year.

Sometimes, I must grudgingly admit, it's all a matter of taste. So, the Cannes jury and world critics loved Cristi Puiu's abortion drama 4 Months 3 Weeks and 2 Days. In case foreign-language-film-voting Academy-ites loved it as well, they didn't love it well enough. The shoo-in nominee fail to land a nod in early 2008.

Other surprises in recent years include the absence of both Pedro Almodóvar's Volver and Matteo Garrone's Gomorrah among the nominated foreign films. (This year, Almodóvar's Broken Embraces was bypassed by the Spanish Oscar committee; their submission is listed further down.)

You like potato, they like tomato, I like tiramisu? Well, that could be. That could also be the result of warped voting procedures; e.g., the fact that only a (small? tiny?) minority of Academy members end up watching even a sample of the sixty or so submitted films each year.

My point is: of all the top Oscar categories, this is by far the most unpredictable. I'm sure that those Academy voters even surprise themselves every now and then – I mean, Aki Kaurismäki's way out there The Man Without Past? Susanne Bier's unusual melodrama After the Wedding? How did those get in next to conventional fare like, say, Days of Glory, The Lives of Others, Nowhere in Africa, and The Crime of Father Amaro? (By the way, “conventional” doesn't necessarily means “bad.” It just means, well, “conventional,” or if you prefer, “mainstream.”)

Anyhow, the five films listed at the top of this article are Oscar 2010 possibilities – that's it. Even Michael Haneke's Palme d'Or winner The White Ribbon doesn't have a guaranteed Oscar nomination because it may end up being too stark for a group of people who generally like their dramas either unabashedly sentimental or easily accessible – or even better, both. (No Haneke-directed film has ever been nominated for an Oscar – in any category.)

Among the other contenders of note – and of varying degrees of Oscarability – in the best foreign language film category are:

The Wind Journeys by Ciro Guerra

Claudia Llosa's The Milk of Sorrow (Peru), winner of the Golden Bear at the Berlin Film Festival; Ciro Guerra's The Wind Journeys (above; Colombia), a well-received tale featuring an aging accordion player traveling with a young apprentice; and Oskar Jonasson's Reykjavik-Rotterdam (Iceland), about a former smuggler who, out of economic necessity, may revert to his old ways. Jonasson's thriller recently received quite a bit of publicity on this side of the Atlantic thanks to an announced remake to star Mark Wahlberg.

Involuntary by Ruben Ostlund

Also, Ruben Ostlund's Golden Beetle nominee (that's Sweden's Oscars) Involuntary (above; Sweden), about summer fun gone sour; Joon-ho Bong's Mother (Korea), in which a mother does everything in her power to save her son, who has been accused of a serious crime; and Corneliu Porumboiu's Un Certain Regard Jury Prize winner Police, Adjective (Romania), in which a sensible police officer refuses to arrest a young pot dealer.

About Elly by Asghar Farhadi

Plus Asghar Farhadi's About Elly (above; Iran), winner of the Silver Bear for best director in Berlin; Havana Marking's Sundance Award-winning documentary Afghan Star (United Kingdom), about how some people in Afghanistan will take all sorts of chances to appear on the television show Pop Idol; Fernando Trueba's The Dancer and the Thief (Spain), a political-psychological drama set in Chile, in which two amnestied former inmates take surprising paths once they're out of prison, partly thanks to the influence of a mute ballerina; and Yonfan's Prince of Tears (Hong Kong), the story of two mainland Chinese sisters recently arrived in Taiwan who have their lives turned upside down after their parents are accused of being spies.

Sergio Rezende's Time of Fear

Curiously, the Brazilian committee has submitted another violent urban tale for the Oscars – Sérgio Rezende's Time of Fear (above) – despite the fact that neither of their previous submissions in that genre (City of God, Last Stop 174) landed a nomination. (City of God was nominated in several categories the following year thanks to Harvey Weinstein's Oscar Vote Nabbing Machine.)

In fact, chances are that those Academy members who vote in the foreign film category will much rather watch (and vote for) Leon Dai's Golden Horse nominee No Puedo Vivir sin Ti (Taiwan), the tale of a poor dockworker who fights Taiwan's bureaucracy so as to keep custody of his child.

But then again, I could be wrong. After all, Time of Fear focuses on a mom trying to rescue her imprisoned son at a time of social and political chaos in São Paulo.

Oscar Early Predictions: Michelle Pfeiffer Best Actress Contender? © 2004–2018 Alt Film Guide and/or author(s).
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51 Comments to Oscar Early Predictions: Michelle Pfeiffer Best Actress Contender?

  1. joe

    “El secreto de sus ojos” was interesting, but nothing about it struck me as particularly special - I thought the ending was pretty predictable given the characters, too.

  2. debbie

    I can't believe Sandra Bullock is even nominated for best actress 2010. All Sandra does is mumble her lines in a way a lot of people can't even understand, to date I've never undertood her, even when i press my ears over the TV screen.

    To compensate for her lack of acting credentials, she laughs and giggles to the point of irritation, all the while mumbling inaudible words, which not even a great actress like Streep would be able to decipher.

    Oh yeah, Bullock has influence in the industry of Arts and Entertainment. her Mom's a respectable Opera Singer.

    End of!

  3. Pedro

    I saw THE SECRET, but I'm still not sure what was meant by the title.
    Was it the look on the rape victim?. Or was it a reference to the hidden penalty dished out by the victim's husband.
    In any case, the movie had epic moments that leaves you with a wide range of feelings, from anger at the justice system corruption, to a morbid satisfaction at the “eye for an eye” type of revenge, finishing with the triumph of love.

  4. TROY

    YOU ALL ARE CRAZY!!! Gabourey 'Gabby' Sidibe in “Precious” is great in this movie. I cried each scene and I am a big, muscular black man. I haven't seen any of the other movies, but they seem plain and usual, like most moives these actresses do. It takes power to play roles that are deemed negative and bring life to them. I could not have done anything like this. Great performance Gabby and congratulations on your Best Actress Ward at the NAACP Awards!!!!

  5. Oso Verde

    “El secreto de sus ojos” es un peliculón!! A great movie!

  6. Michael Jones

    Sidibe deserves to win, her performance was excellent!

  7. Lio

    # Lio on January 8th, 2010

    So nobody thinks Argentina's “The secret in their eyes” has a shot?

    Wow… accurate predictions, thay didn't even name Ajami and The secret in their eyes… two finalists out of five… pathetic.

  8. Boleyn

    I think Oscar belongs to Sandra Bullock, not because she's my favourite actress - because ”The Blind Side” is a great job and she deserved it!

  9. Viggo Mate

    Viggo out? Are you all mad? He should have won for Eastern Promises and he's even better in this. Viggo for the Oscar, simple as.

  10. Christian Lara

    Granted Mariah Carey did well in her role in the movie Precious. But lets see, how much film time did she get? 5 minutes, out of a 1 1/2 hour movie? No, she showed that she may have talent as an actress but her role and performance does not qualify for even being nominated for best supporting actress. And its incredibly mind boggling that it even was. Further showing that the Oscar's are slowly becoming more about bribing that actual talent and dedication. Paula Patton though, AMAZING performance. An actress and character more memorable than Mariah Carey. And how she didn't get nominated is beyond me (like i said, money), and was Mo'nique's. Every field now a days seem to be corrupt now a days

  11. PabloV99

    I just can say that “El secreto de sus ojos (The secret in their eyes)” is one of the best pictures I ever see, is one of that movies that, when you leave the theater, remains in a corner of your mind and you can't avoid that the scenes (and feelings, and questions) comes again and again to your head…
    Obviously I would like that El Secreto… wins an Oscar, because I'm from Argentina and my heart is with it, but… the more I desire is that all people can view it because is really a jewel.
    And, at least for all those who say “that movie is the better” or “that must win”: You can't compare one movie whith another one that you haven't saw!! Please go to theater and see all the candidates before write your opinion or vote!!
    As yet I could not see all candidates, then I can't make my list. I just can express my deepest desire with this movie.

  12. Forever Enthralled (China) was superb.

  13. sunny

    Harishchandrachi Factory watch it if u get to see it

  14. sunny

    i think Harishchandrachi Factory has good chances …it a universally appealing movie…i saw it last week in screening …. i must tell is really a good movie

  15. lissett

    the best is a catalina saavedra!

  16. Cole kingstom

    Catalina Saavedra, for “The Maid “

  17. Daniel

    My vote goes to CATALINA SAAVEDRA. AMAZING WORK

  18. Lio

    So nobody thinks Argentina's “The secret in their eyes” has a shot?

  19. Claudio

    Catalina Saavedra for The Maid.

    Her performing is so simple and deeply at the same time.

  20. mirko

    My vote goes to Carey Mulligan in An Education.

  21. Daniel Gonzalez Muniz

    Catalina Saavedra byfar. The best actress of 2009. The movie “The maid” is the best i have seen this year, and her performance is amazing.
    She won best actress in Sundance Festival, La Habana Festival, Huelva, Gotham, Lima, nominated to a Golden globe….
    IF SHE IS NOT NOMINATED FOR AN OSCAR IS BECAUSE OF BUROCRACY, BECAUSE SHE DESERVES IT!

  22. I think, India's entry 'Harishchandrachi Factory' may prove to be a dark horse. The theme has an international appeal. The story talks about the birth of Indian film industry(which is one of the biggest in the world today) and how it had a modest start and one very simple man's struggle to make it happen. And yet the movie is scripted in an altogether different note i.e. comedy!! Wow what a film and cinema!

  23. lili

    Nine and The Lovely Bones is starting with bad reviews. Many critics find both film disappointing! If this continues, the two possible contenders from The Lovely Bones and the multiple Nine actresses who are all in the running for the Oscar Best Supporting Actress race might end up not being nominated!
    Mariah Carey and Mo'nique though did really good in their supporting roles in Precious.To land in the Oscar top 5 would do them justice! Variety said “Pitch Perfect” to Mariah Carey's performance in the film!

  24. Steph

    Standing Ovation for Mariah Carey's performance in Precious! Precious deserves to get a lot of nominations including three actors for the Best Supporting category namely Mariah Carey, Mo'Nique, and Paula Patton. But Carey has my full support! The awards that she recently won for her role in the film just prooves how much she deserves to be nominated… even win!

  25. Derrick

    being an actor i must say that Mo'nique def. deserves the Oscar. (Emma and Paula Great Job) for the people saying Mariah needs it, clearly don't know anything about acting or the meaning of Oscar. Now she did good as her character but you saw her twice throughout the movie. Meaning it did not take any work, “hard” work for her to be there. That's not what an Oscar recipient is. Sorry!

  26. Cristian

    you totally missed Catalina Saavedra in “The Maid”. Even Tom O'Neill mentioned her as a possible contender.

  27. alab

    Mo'Nique clearly deserves it the most…
    All i can say is watch the movie…she is horrifying and mesmerizing! Amazing

  28. LOL, what's Japan!?

    Oh, wow, I forgot Tilda Swinton in Julia! Now that is one insane, stylized and fantastic performance. No shot at a nomination, but one that will certainly be loved and admired for years.

  29. Streep, Sidibe and Mulligan seem very likely at this point. I don't quite buy Cornish, as her performance is very understated until the end (her last two scenes are very good AND very baity). But it is a reasonable prediction. The Helen Mirren film/role seems tailor-made for awards consideration. So, I would pick her slightly over Cornish (and especially Pfeiffer for her D.O.A. film; Mirren seems more likely to take a second veteran spot). Rounding out my top five is Cotillard pushed lead in Nine. Perhaps a stretch and a little bit of wishful thinking, but folks in sneaks seem to really champion her and Cruz (obviously going supporting for Nine because of the Almodovar film).

    Sadly Moreau, Abbass and the always wonderful Shohreh Aghdashloo and my favorite so far, Kyôko Koizumi for Tokyo Sonata, will be left out.

  30. mirko

    Yes, Emma Thompson nomination Actress suppoting role. She is fantastic.

  31. brandon

    mariah u deserve it u are amazing u did most for the role

  32. MM

    What about the second World War-drama “Max Manus”, the norwegian contribution. Any opinions on that??

  33. Timothy

    Viggo Mortensen should stay in the list. Hell definitelly be nominated. STuhlabarg has absolutely no chance.

  34. Chavez

    Yolande Moreau doesn't stand a chance. She shouldn't have been included in this article.

  35. Hermano

    My vote goes to Penelope Cruz in Abrazos.
    I havent seen the movie, but Penelope Cruz is always good.

  36. Hermano

    I agree. Mariah for the Oscars!!
    But if Penelope wins again I wont be upset.

  37. Raquel

    if those are going to be the five nominees, then I'm sure that Colin Firth will win the Oscar.

  38. Steph Chow

    Mariah Carey for Best Supporting Actress! Her performance in the film Precious is beyond good, it was perfect!

  39. pollie

    The real race will be between Haneke's White Ribbon and Jacques Audiard's A Prophet.

  40. Marcy

    Colin Firth will win.

  41. Louis

    PC looks PHENOMENAL

  42. ernstin

    I hpe Sigourney Weaver gets a nonmination. Shes one of our greatest actresses and shes never won.

  43. Carlos

    Penelope Cruz' garters should win the Oscar!

  44. Mike

    James McAvoy will have to wait some more. Put Kodi Smit-McPhee in his place.

  45. cARLOS

    Ellen Page in WHIP IT!

  46. joj

    Take out Viggo Mortensen, add in Michael Stuhlbarg and you'll have your 5.