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SAG Awards Nominations Predictions: Annette Bening & Mark Wahlberg + Jacki Weaver & Lesley Manville?

SAG Awards Annette Bening Julianne Moore The Kids Are All Right: Loving dysfunctional familySAG Awards: Shoo-in Best Actress nominee Annette Bening and potential Best Actress (or Best Supporting Actress?) nominee Julianne Moore: Loving and dysfunctional lesbian couple in Lisa Cholodenko's likely Best Cast nominee The Kids Are All Right. The SAG Awards should also shortlist Bening and Moore's male co-star, Mark Ruffalo, in the Best Supporting Actor category.

SAG Awards nominations predictions: From Annette Bening to Jeremy Renner – and perhaps a handful of 'little-known' non-U.S. contenders?

Best Actress

Below are our predictions for the 2010 SAG Awards in the Best Actress – or Best Female Actor – category:

  • Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right.
  • Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole.
  • Jennifer Lawrence, Winter's Bone.
  • Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right.
  • Natalie Portman, Black Swan.

Other possibilities:

Jennifer Lawrence & Julianne Moore

Here's one example of our many Can't Go Wrong predictions: Jennifer Lawrence – a young performer seen in Debra Granik's small, independently made Winter's Bone – managed to nab a Golden Globe nomination for Best Actress Drama. It's hard to believe that the Screen Actors Guild's nominating committee will bypass the chance to have the year's Cinderella shortlisted.

And here's one of our few Can Go Wrong predictions: The Kids Are All Right costar Julianne Moore – in case she has been submitted in the Best Actress category – would be the wild card. In the acting department, most of the awards season chat about Lisa Cholodenko's family comedy-drama has focused on Annette Bening.

Ultimately, Moore could end up getting a nomination if SAG's voting committee really liked Cholodenko's movie. Else, Blue Valentine actress Michelle Williams is the most likely candidate to take Moore's place in the Best Actress Predictions list above.

British actress Lesley Manville: Better chance at the Oscars

For her work in Mike Leigh's Another Year, 2010 National Board of Review Best Actress winner Lesley Manville stands a better chance at the (somewhat) more international-cinema-friendly Oscars. Even so, a SAG Award nomination for Manville wouldn't be impossible.

After all, Brenda Blethyn was shortlisted back in 1996 for Leigh's own Secrets & Lies, while Jane Horrocks received a nomination two years later for Mark Herman's Little Voice. Both were independently made British productions.

But then again, apart from Marion Cotillard for Olivier Dahan's La Vie en Rose in 2007, Blethyn and Horrocks are the only two “lesser-known” performers – in the United States – to be nominated for a Best Actress SAG Award for their work in non-U.S. productions.

SAG Awards' little love for non-English speakers

I should add that actors in foreign-language films hardly ever get any love from the SAG Awards' nominating committee.

Marion Cotillard and Penélope Cruz (for Pedro Almodóvar's Volver, 2006) are the two exceptions in the Best Actress category. Well, unless you include Catalina Sandino Moreno in the U.S.-financed Maria Full of Grace (2004).

That's why The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo star Noomi Rapace may also have better luck at the Oscars.

And finally, that's also why 2010 Los Angeles Film Critics Best Actress winner Kim Hye-ja doesn't stand a chance, even in case Bong Joon-ho's well-received Mother is eligible for the SAG Awards.

SAG Awards: Mark Wahlberg shirtless + buffed up The Fighter Best Actor contenderSAG Awards: Buffed up shirtless Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter a possible Best Actor contender. David O. Russell directed this critically acclaimed domestic sleeper hit inspired by real life events – and that'll in all likelihood also earn SAG Award nominations in the supporting categories for Christian Bale, Melissa Leo, and Amy Adams.

Best Actor

Predictions for the 2010 Best Actor SAG Award:

Other possibilities:

  • Javier Bardem, Biutiful.
  • Leonardo DiCaprio, Inception.
  • Michael Douglas, A Solitary Man.
  • Robert Duvall, Get Low.
  • Aaron Eckhart, Rabbit Hole.
  • Ryan Gosling, Blue Valentine.
  • Jake Gyllenhaal, Love & Other Drugs.
  • Kevin Spacey, Casino Jack.

Wild card Mark Wahlberg & Leonardo DiCaprio likely to be snubbed again

This is a crowded field. Although he has the title role in David O. Russell's sleeper hit The Fighter, Mark Wahlberg is the wild card here; either Blue Valentine's Ryan Gosling or Get Low's Robert Duvall may take his place.

Leonardo DiCaprio, for his part, has been snubbed before – most glaringly for James Cameron's Titanic back in 1997 and for Sam Mendes' Revolutionary Road in 2008.

DiCaprio will quite possibly be snubbed again this year despite the critical and financial success of Christopher Nolan's Inception.

Jacki Weaver The Animal Kingdom: SAG Awards ignore talent from other countriesJacki Weaver in The Animal Kingdom, an Australian crime drama directed by David Michôd. Eligibility for the SAG Awards can be an issue for some non-U.S. movies, but even when they're at least theoretically in the running, the Screen Actors Guild nominating committee members – those who select the five final contenders – almost invariably ignore talent from other countries, no matter how acclaimed their work.

Best Supporting Actress

For the 2010 Best Supporting Actress SAG Award, here are our predictions:

  • Amy Adams, The Fighter.
  • Helena Bonham Carter, The King's Speech.
  • Melissa Leo, The Fighter.
  • Hailee Steinfeld, True Grit.
  • Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom.

Other possibilities:

  • Dale Dickey, Winter's Bone.
  • Rebecca Hall, The Town.
  • Barbara Hershey, Black Swan.
  • Catherine Keener, Please Give.
  • Mila Kunis, Black Swan.
  • Dianne Wiest, Rabbit Hole.

Lesser-known movie performers' most welcoming SAG Awards category

The SAG Awards' Best Supporting Actress category has included many more newcomers and/or lesser-known film performers than their Best Supporting Actor shortlists. For instance, in recent years: Rinko Kikuchi and Adriana Barraza (Babel), Amy Ryan (Gone Baby Gone), Viola Davis (Doubt), Abigail Breslin (Little Miss Sunshine), and Anna Kendrick (Up in the Air).

That bodes well for the likes of Hailee Steinfeld and Jacki Weaver, and possibly Mila Kunis and Dale Dickey.

Jacki Weaver out?

On the other hand, working against Jacki Weaver is that, as mentioned earlier in this post, non-American productions featuring lesser-known players in the United States usually don't fare well at all with the SAG Awards' nominating committee. Critical acclaim or no, Weaver is in contention for David Michôd's crime drama Animal Kingdom – an Australian production.

In the Best Supporting Actress category, in the last decade the sole exception to the “non-U.S. & not well-known not welcome” rule has been (actually lead actress) Keisha Castle-Hughes' nod for Niki Caro's New Zealand-made drama Whale Rider back in 2003.

In case Jacki Weaver ends up out of the nominations shortlist, then Mila Kunis will most likely be in. Another possibility is that Hailee Steinfeld would be replaced by Kunis, who's in the running for both the 2010 Critics' Choice Awards and the Golden Globes (Steinfeld was snubbed by the Globes).

SAG Awards: Jeremy Renner The Town is Best Supporting Actor wild cardSAG Awards: Jeremy Renner is a wild card in the Best Supporting Actor category for his performance in Ben Affleck's ensemble crime thriller The Town. Renner is up for a Golden Globe, and last year the SAG Awards shortlisted him in the Best Actor category for Kathryn Bigelow's Iraq War drama The Hurt Locker. On his side is the fact that The Town has turned out to be a surprisingly solid domestic box office hit.

Best Supporting Actor

The 2010 SAG Award nominations will be announced in a few hours – at 9 a.m. ET (Dec. 16) to be exact. So, here are our last-minute Best Supporting Actor predictions:

  • Christian Bale, The Fighter.
  • Michael Douglas, Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.
  • Andrew Garfield, The Social Network.
  • Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right.
  • Geoffrey Rush, The King's Speech.

Other possibilities:

  • Matt Damon, True Grit.
  • John Hawkes, Winter's Bone.
  • Jeremy Renner, The Town.
  • Sam Rockwell, Conviction.

Career awards for SAG Awards' Best Supporting Actor winners

Since its inception in 1994, the Screen Actors Guild Award for Best Supporting Actor has usually gone to screen veterans, e.g., Martin Landau, Michael Caine, Morgan Freeman, Eddie Murphy, Robert Duvall, Robin Williams.

Much like at the Oscars (think Caine, Freeman, Landau, Williams, Sean Connery, Alan Arkin), these wins can be seen as unofficial Career Awards.

Nominees, however, tend to be a varied bunch. Although veterans generally dominate the SAG Awards' Best Supporting Actor shortlist as well, they not infrequently compete side by side with newcomers.

In 2008, Robert Downey Jr. was up against Dev Patel. In 2004, James Garner and Morgan Freeman were up against Freddie Highmore. In 1999, you had Michael Caine and Haley Joel Osment vying for the very same award.

In 2010, you may very well find veterans Michael Douglas, Christian Bale, and Geoffrey Rush competing with future Spider-Man Andrew Garfield. And Mark Ruffalo, too.

Wild card Jeremy Renner

Jeremy Renner is the big wild card here. Renner did get a Best Supporting Actor Golden Globe nomination for The Town and he was a Best Actor SAG Award nominee last year for Kathryn Bigelow's The Hurt Locker.

Also on Renner's side, Ben Affleck's crime thriller will quite likely get a SAG Award nomination for Best Ensemble. Thus, Renner could easily replace either Garfield or Ruffalo – or even Michael Douglas, who should be getting the sympathy vote.

Claire Bloom The King's Speech: Best Cast SAG Awards actress worked + Charles ChaplinClaire Bloom in The King's Speech. Pretty much a shoo-in for a SAG Awards Best Cast nomination – trailing only David Fincher's The Social Network – Tom Hooper's real-life-inspired, crowd-pleasing period drama stars likely Best Actor winner Colin Firth, and likely supporting nominees Helena Bonham Carter and Geoffrey Rush. Veteran actress Claire Bloom, whose leading lady movie career dates back to Charles Chaplin's 1952 drama Limelight, should find herself listed as well among the film's nominated cast members.

Best Cast

Predictions for Best Cast (or Best Ensemble) at the 2010 SAG Awards:

  • Black Swan.
  • The Kids Are All Right.
  • The King's Speech.
  • The Social Network.
  • The Town.

Other possibilities:

  • Fair Game.
  • The Fighter.
  • Hereafter.
  • Inception.
  • Love & Other Drugs.
  • Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps.
  • Winter's Bone.

And to a lesser extent:

  • Animal Kingdom.
  • Another Year.
  • Casino Jack.

Golden Globe nominations or no, we don't believe The Tourist or Burlesque stand a chance.

'The Fighter' among SAG Awards' five nominees?

With the exception of David Fincher's The Social Network – more because of its prestige than because of its cast – The Fighter, which may well land three or even four individual nominations, could easily replace any of the other shortlisted movies for Best Cast.

Now, which one? And how could we not have listed The Fighter if it'll likely get several individual nods?

Well, the SAG Awards have made some inane Outstanding Performance by a Cast choices. “Inane” not because we disagree with them; whether or not one approves of SAG's choices is irrelevant here. They've been inane at times merely because they don't match SAG's choices in the individual acting categories.

'Inane' Best Cast nomination picks & the George Clooney Curse

For instance, in 2009 Jason Reitman's Up in the Air received three individual SAG Award nominations: Best Actor for George Clooney, and Best Supporting Actress for Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick – more than any other movie that year. Yet Up in the Air failed to be shortlisted for Best Cast.

In 2007, James Mangold's 3:10 to Yuma and Adam Shankman's Hairspray had their casts shortlisted despite the fact that none of the actors in question landed a single individual nomination.

That same year, Tony Gilroy's Michael Clayton earned three individual nods: George Clooney for Best Actor, Tom Wilkinson for Best Supporting Actor, and Tilda Swinton for Best Supporting Actress. Yet Michael Clayton failed to be shortlisted for Best Cast.

Whether or not this can be explained as a George Clooney SAG Award curse, it's all quite absurd.

Back to our 2010 SAG Awards' predictions: 127 Hours, Blue Valentine, and Rabbit Hole, no matter how well-liked by Screen Actors Guild members, stand little chance of landing a Best Performance by a Cast nomination. That's because these movies don't quite have what you'd call an extensive list of “important” characters.

 

SAG Awards website.

Image of shoo-in Best Actress SAG Awards' nominee Annette Bening and potential nominee Julianne Moore as a lesbian couple in likely Best Cast nominee The Kids Are All Right: Suzanne Tenner / Focus Features.

Image of SAG Awards' potential Best Actor nominee Mark Wahlberg in The Fighter: Paramount Pictures.

Image of SAG Awards' wild card Jeremy Renner in The Town: Claire Folger / Legendary Pictures / Warner Bros.

Image of Claire Bloom in (just about) shoo-in Best Cast SAG Award nominee The King's Speech: The Weinstein Company.

Jacki Weaver Animal Kingdom image: Sony Pictures Classics.

SAG Awards Nominations Predictions: Annette Bening & Mark Wahlberg + Jacki Weaver & Lesley Manville? © 2004–2018 Alt Film Guide and/or author(s).
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