Amy Adams Oscar Nominations Leading to Victory?

Amy Adams’ Oscar nominations: Best Actress win for American Hustle? Adams is seen here with Christian Bale.

Oscar predictions

Below are our last-minute Oscar 2014 predictions. The 86th Academy Award nominations are going to be announced on Thursday, January 16, at 5:30 a.m. Pacific Time in the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ Samuel Goldwyn Theater in Beverly Hills. We will be posting the list of Oscar 2014 nominations here.

As mentioned elsewhere on this site, the Oscar nominations always offer some kind of surprise that will leave some elated and others mighty pissed off. Last year, for example, left out of the Best Director roster were favorites Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty and Ben Affleck for Argo. The latter film, predictably, went on to take home the Best Picture Academy Award. Also, a few years ago, Christopher Nolan was bypassed for Inception, while a couple of years before that, Nolan and his film, The Dark Knight, were bypassed for Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Adapted Screenplay.

Anyhow, let’s proceed to our fearless Oscar 2014 predictions, including runners-up and long shots in the Best Picture, Best Director, and the acting categories. Note: The Best Picture shortlist is arranged according to the likelihood of a nomination; all other shortlists, including Best Picture runners-up and long shots, are arranged in alphabetical order.

Oscar 2014 Predictions: Best Picture

12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; Gravity; Her; Nebraska; The Wolf of Wall Street; Captain Phillips; Inside Llewyn Davis; Saving Mr. Banks; Dallas Buyers Club.

Oscar 2014 Best Picture runners-up: August: Osage County; Blue Jasmine; The Butler; Fruitvale Station; Philomena.

Long shots: All Is Lost; Before Midnight; Blue Is the Warmest Color; Enough Said; Labor Day; Lone Survivor; Prisoners; Rush.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity; Spike Jonze, Her; Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Alexander Payne, Nebraska; David O. Russell, American Hustle.

Runners-up: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis; Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue Is the Warmest Color; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street.

Long shots: Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Peter Berg, Lone Survivor; J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost; Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station; Lee Daniels, The Butler; Asghar Farhadi, The Past; Stephen Frears, Philomena; Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips; John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks; Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said; Ron Howard, Rush; Richard Linklater, Before Midnight; Jason Reitman, Labor Day; Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club; Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners; Thomas Vinterberg, The Hunt; John Wells, August: Osage County.

Best Actor

Bruce Dern for Nebraska; Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave; Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips; Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club; Robert Redford for All Is Lost.

Runners-up: Christian Bale for American Hustle; Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street; Oscar Isaac for Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix for Her; Forest Whitaker for The Butler.

Long shots: Josh Brolin Labor Day; Idris Elba for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Ethan Hawke for Before Midnight; Chris Hemsworth for Rush; Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal for Prisoners; Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station; Mads Mikkelsen for The Hunt; Daniel Radcliffe for Kill Your Darlings; Tahar Rahim for The Past / Le Passé; Mark Wahlberg for Lone Survivor.

Oscar 2014 Predictions: Best Actress

Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock for Gravity; Judi Dench for Philomena; Meryl Streep for August: Osage County; Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks.

Runners-up: Amy Adams for American Hustle; Adèle Exarchopoulos for Blue Is the Warmest Color; Kate Winslet for Labor Day.

Long shots: Bérénice Bejo for The Past / Le Passé; Julie Delpy for Before Midnight; Julia-Louis Dreyfus for Enough Said; Greta Gerwig for Frances Ha; Brie Larson for Short Term 12; Carey Mulligan for either The Great Gatsby or Inside Llewyn Davis.

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins for Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle; Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave; Julia Roberts for August: Osage County; June Squibb for Nebraska.

Runners-up: Scarlett Johansson for Her; Juliette Lewis and Margo Martindale for August: Osage County; Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station; Oprah Winfrey for The Butler.

Long shots: Jane Fonda for The Butler; Naomie Harris for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Julianne Nicholson for August: Osage County; Margot Robbie for The Wolf of Wall Street; Léa Seydoux for Blue Is the Warmest Color.

Oscar 2014 Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi for Captain Phillips; Daniel Brühl for Rush; Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave; James Gandolfini for Enough Said; Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club.

Runners-up: Steve Coogan for Philomena; Bradley Cooper for American Hustle; Will Forte for Nebraska; James Franco for Spring Breakers; Tom Hanks for Saving Mr. Banks.

Long shots: George Clooney for Gravity; Chris Cooper for August: Osage County; Harrison Ford for 42; Paul Giamatti for 12 Years a Slave; Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street; Matthew McConaughey for Mud; Jeremy Renner for American Hustle.

Best Foreign Language Film

Felix van Groeningen’s The Broken Circle Breakdown (Belgium), Paolo Sorrentino’s The Great Beauty / La grande bellezza (Italy); Thomas Vinterberg’s The Hunt / Jagten (Denmark), Hany Abu-Assad’s Omar (Palestine), Georg Maa’s Two Lives / Zwei Leben (Germany).

Runners-up: Danis Tanovic’s An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker / Epizoda u zivotu beraca zeljeza (Bosnia and Herzegovina), Wong Kar-Wai’s The Grandmaster / Yi dai zong shi (Hong Kong), Rithy Panh’s The Missing Picture / L’image manquante (Cambodia), János Szász’s The Notebook / A nagy füzet (Hungary).

George Clooney in ‘Gravity’

Oscar 2014 predictions: From ‘Gravity’ to ‘The Great Gatsby’

Among those listed are Meryl Streep, Robert Redford, Julia Roberts, Jennifer Lawrence, David O. Russell, Jared Leto, Matthew McConaughey, Cate Blanchett, Sally Hawkins, Judi Dench, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong’o, Michael Fassbender, Steve McQueen, Bruce Dern, June Squibb, James Gandolfini, Alfonso Cuarón, Sandra Bullock, Tom Hanks, and Emma Thompson.

Below is the follow up list to our last-minute Oscar 2014 predictions. All lists are in alphabetical order. The only categories that feature runners-up and long shots are the two screenplay categories.

Curiously, several major movies and/or widely touted potential Oscar contenders have been completely shut out of our Oscar 2014 predictions (top five films). Among these are Zack Snyder-Henry Cavill’s Man of Steel; Lee Daniels-Forest Whitaker’s The Butler; Denis Villeneuve-Hugh Jackman’s Prisoners; Peter Berg-Mark Wahlberg’s Lone Survivor; Abdellatif Kechiche-Adèle Exarchopoulo’s Blue Is the Warmest Color; and Francis Lawrence-Jennifer Lawrence’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire.

Also: the animated Monsters University; Ryan Coogler-Michael B. Jordan’s Fruitvale Station; J.J. Abrams-Chris Pine’s Star Trek: Into Darkness; Justin Lin-Paul Walker’s Fast & Furious 6; Alan Taylor-Chris Hemsworth’s Thor: The Dark World; Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty; Neill Blomkamp-Matt Damon’s Elysium; and Joseph Kosinski-Tom Cruise’s Oblivion.

Now, on to our Oscar 2014 predictions…

Oscar 2014 Predictions

Best Original Screenplay: David O. Russell and Eric Singer for Russell’s American Hustle; Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Spike Jonze for Her; Joel and Ethan Coen for Inside Llewyn Davis; Bob Nelson for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska.

Runners-up: Craig Borten and Melisa Wallack for Dallas Buyers Club; Nicole Holofcener for Enough Said; Alfonso Cuarón and Jonás Cuarón for Gravity; Kelly Marcel and Sue Smith, Saving Mr. Banks.

Long shots: Ryan Coogler for Fruitvale Station; Thomas Vinterberg and Tobias Lindholm for Vinterberg’s The Hunt / Jagten; Jeff Nichols for Mud; Aaron Guzikowski for Denis Villeneuve’s Prisoners.

Best Adapted Screenplay John Ridley for Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave; Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, and Richard Linklater for Before Midnight; Billy Ray for Paul Greengrass’ Captain Phillips; Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope for Stephen Frears’ Philomena; Terence Winter for Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street.

Runners-up: Tracy Letts for John Wells’ August: Osage County; Abdellatif Kechiche and Ghalia Lacroix for Kechiche’s Blue Is the Warmest Color / La vie d’Adèle; Jason Reitman for Labor Day.

Long shots: Peter Berg for Lone Survivor; Destin Daniel Cretton for Short Term 12; Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber for James Ponsoldt’s The Spectacular Now.

Best Cinematography: Sean Bobbitt, 12 Years a Slave; Emmanuel Lubezki, Gravity; Hoyte van Hoytema, Her; Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis; Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska.

Best Film Editing: Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave; Jay Cassidy and Crispin Struthers, American Hustle; Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips; Alfonso Cuarón and Mark Sanger, Gravity; Daniel P. Hanley and Mike Hill, Rush.

Best Original Score: Hans Zimmer, 12 Years a Slave; Alex Ebert, All Is Lost; John Williams, The Book Thief; Steven Price, Gravity; Hans Zimmer, Rush.

Best Documentary Feature: Christine Cynn, Joshua Oppenheimer, and Anonymou’s The Act of Killing; Gabriela Cowperthwaite’s Blackfish; Roger Ross William’s God Loves Uganda; Rick Rowley’s Dirty Wars; Sarah Polley’s Stories We Tell.

Best Animated Feature (up to five films): First three: Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee’s Frozen; Hayao Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises; Stéphane Aubier, Benjamin Renner, and Vincent Patar’s Ernest & Celestine / Ernest et Célestine. Last two: Kirk DeMicco and Chris Sanders’ The Croods; Pierre Coffin and Chris Renaud’s Despicable Me 2.

Best Production Design: Adam Stochausen and Alice Baker, 12 Years a Slave; Judy Becker and Heather Loeffler, American Hustle; Andy Nicholson and Rosie Goodwin, Gravity; Catherine Martin and Beverly Dunn, The Great Gatsby; Robert Stromberg and Nancy Haigh, Oz: The Great and Powerful.

Best Costume Design: Patricia Norris, 12 Years a Slave; Michael Wilkinson, American Hustle; Catherine Martin, The Great Gatsby; Gary Jones, Oz: The Great and Powerful; Daniel Orlandi, Saving Mr. Banks.

Best Original Song: “Let It Go,” Frozen, Kristen Anderson Lopez and Robert Lopez. “Ordinary Love,” Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, music by Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen Jr. and Brian Burton; lyrics by Bono. “Over the Love,” The Great Gatsby, Florence Welch. “Sweeter Than Fiction,” One Chance, Taylor Swift and Jack Antonoff. “Young and Beautiful,” The Great Gatsby, Lana Del Rey.

Best Visual Effects: Gravity; The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug; Iron Man 3; Pacific Rim; World War Z.

Best Sound Editing: Gravity; The Great Gatsby; Pacific Rim; Rush; World War Z.

Best Sound Mixing: All Is Lost; Captain Phillips; Gravity; Rush; Pacific Rim.

Best Make-Up and Hairstyling: Dallas Buyers Club; The Great Gatsby; The Lone Ranger.

Best Animated Short (up to five): Feral, Daniel Sousa, director, and Dan Golden, music and sound design; Get a Horse! Lauren MacMullan, director, and Dorothy McKim, producer; Hollow Land, Uri Kranot and Michelle Kranot, directors; Possessions, Shuhei Morita, director; Subconscious Password, Chris Landreth director.

Best Live Action Short (up to five): Aquel No Era Yo (That Wasn’t Me), Esteban Crespo, director; Helium, Anders Walter, director, and Kim Magnusson, producer; Record/Play, Jesse Atlas, director, and Thom Fennessey, executive producer; Tiger Boy, Gabriele Mainetti, director; The Voorman Problem, Mark Gill, director, and Baldwin Li, producer.

Shirtless Leonardo DiCaprio seducing/seduced by Margot Robbie in The Wolf of Wall Street.

Watch Oscar 2014 nominations announcement live streaming online

You can watch the Oscar 2014 nominations announcement live streaming online in the embedded video link below. According to the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences countdown clock, we’re 2 hours 16 minutes and 50 seconds, 42 seconds, 34 seconds … from the time of the announcement of those in the running for the 86th Academy Awards. Will Golden Globe winners American Hustle, 12 Years a Slave, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence, Amy Adams, Matthew McConaughey, Alfonso Cuarón, Spike Jonze, and The Great Beauty be included? Check out the 2014 Oscar nominations announcement below (once it goes live, of course).

Oscar 2014 nominations: Possibilities

Possibilities include the following films, actors, directors, screenwriters, cinematographers, composers, etc.: Leonardo DiCaprio, Margot Robbie, Jonah Hill, Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street; Tom Hanks, Emma Thompson, John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks; Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Margo Martindale, Chris Cooper, John Wells, Tracy Letts, August: Osage County; Bruce Dern, June Squibb, Will Forte, Bob Nelson Alexander Payne, Nebraska; Sandra Bullock, (less likely) George Clooney, Steven Price, Emmanuel Lubezki, Jonás Cuarón, Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity; Judi Dench, Steve Coogan, Jeff Pope, Stephen Frears’ Philomena; Paolo Sorrentino’s The Great Beauty; Bérénice Bejo, Tahar Rahim, Asghar Farhadi, The Past / Le Passé; and Adèle Exarchopoulos, Léa Seydoux, Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue Is the Warmest Color.

More Oscar 2014 nominations possibilities: Hany Abu-Assad’s Omar; Chiwetel Ejiofor, Lupita Nyong’o, Michael Fassbender, Hans Zimmer, John Ridley, Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Amy Adams, Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, Christian Bale, Michael Wilkinson, Eric Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle; Alfred Yau, William Chang, Wong Kar-Wai, The Grandmaster; Forest Whitaker, Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels, The Butler; Ryan Coogler, Michael B. Jordan, Octavia Spencer, Fruitvale Station; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, James Gandolfini, Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said; Jason Reitman, Kate Winslet, Labor Day; and Tom Hanks, Barkhad Abdi, Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips.

And a few more: James Franco for Harmony Korine’s Spring Breakers; Chris Buck and Jennifer Lee’s Frozen; Joaquin Phoenix, the voice of Scarlett Johansson, Spike Jonze, Her; Hayao Miyazaki’s The Wind Rises; Cate Blanchett, Sally Hawkins, Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; John Williams for Brian Percival’s The Book Thief; Matthew McConaughey, Jared Leto, Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club; Oscar Isaac, Joel Coen, Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis; Danis Tanovic’s An Episode in the Life of an Iron Picker / Epizoda u zivotu beraca zeljeza; Richard Linklater, Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Before Midnight; and Idris Elba, Bono, The Edge, Adam Clayton, Larry Mullen Jr., and Brian Burton for Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom.

Last batch: Mads Mikkelsen, Thomas Vinterberg, The Hunt; Robert Redford, Alex Ebert, J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost; Felix van Groeningen’s The Broken Circle Breakdown; Daniel Brühl, Daniel P. Hanley, Mike Hill, Ron Howard, Rush; and the special effects, and/or sound mixing and sound editing teams of Gravity, Rush, Captain Phillips, Marc Forster-Brad Pitt’s World War Z, Shane Black-Robert Downey Jr.’s Iron Man 3, Guillermo del Toro-Charlie Hunnam’s Pacific Rim, Francis Lawrence’s The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, Joseph Kosinski-Tom Cruise’s Oblivion, Gore Verbinski-Johnny Depp-Armie Hammer’s The Lone Ranger, Baz Luhrmann-Leonardo DiCaprio’s The Great Gatsby; Peter Berg-Mark Wahlberg’s Lone Survivor; and Peter Jackson-Ian McKellen’s The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug.

For the record, last year’s Oscar winners included Michael Haneke’s Amour, Jennifer Lawrence for David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook, Ben Affleck’s Argo, Daniel Day-Lewis for Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln, Christoph Waltz for Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, and Anne Hathaway for Tom Hooper’s Les Misérables.

Shirtless Leonardo DiCaprio and Margot Robbie The Wolf of Wall Street photo: Paramount Pictures.

George Clooney Gravity photo: Warner Bros.

Amy Adams and Christian Bale American Hustle photo: Sony Pictures / Columbia Pictures.

Jennifer Lawrence in ‘American Hustle’

Oscar Predictions 2014 Best Supporting Actress: Jennifer Lawrence and/or Scarlett Johansson to make Oscar history?

The 2014 Academy Awards’ Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor races seemed quite fuzzy at first. The picture became clearer following the announcement of the SAG Award nominations: now, there are three or four top contenders in each category; these performers will probably – or rather, in a couple of cases, surely – be shortlisted for this year’s Academy Awards.

Yet, there’s quite a bit of room for a couple of upsets. In other words, pay close attention to our list of runners-up for Best Supporting Actress. In fact, even one of the “long shot” actresses might manage to squeeze in; admittedly, that’s highly unlikely – but not impossible.

Also worth noting is that unlike the Oscar 2014 Best Actress race, currently dominated by Blue Jasmine‘s Cate Blanchett, there is no runaway favorite in the Best Supporting Actress category, though Jennifer Lawrence could be considered the tentative front-runner for American Hustle. If she wins, she’ll be making Oscar history. More on that below.

Note: Our Oscar 2014 predictions for Best Supporting Actress features only one actress not nominated for a SAG Award. See below.

Oscar 2014 Predictions: Best Supporting Actress

Sally Hawkins for Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine; Jennifer Lawrence for David O. Russell’s American Hustle; Lupita Nyong’o for Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave; Julia Roberts for John Wells’ August: Osage County; June Squibb for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska.

Runners-up: Scarlett Johansson for Spike Jonze’s Her (in a realm of its own, as a voice only performance; see below); Juliette Lewis and Margo Martindale for August: Osage County; Octavia Spencer for Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station; Oprah Winfrey for Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

Long shots: Jane Fonda for The Butler; Naomie Harris for Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Julianne Nicholson for August: Osage County; Margot Robbie for Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street; Léa Seydoux for Abdellatif Kechiche’s Blue Is the Warmest Color.

Note: On our Best Supporting Actress Oscar 2014 predictions list, SAG Award nominee Oprah Winfrey has been replaced by Golden Globe nominee Sally Hawkins.

Scarlett Johansson to make Oscar history?

Also, bear in mind that Amy Adams, though being pushed as a Best Actress contender for American Hustle, could theoretically find her way into the Best Supporting Actress roster for her performance in that movie. Stranger things have happened.

And speaking of “strange,” if Scarlett Johansson gets shortlisted for her voice work in Her – she’s the voice of the computer with which Joaquin Phoenix falls in love – that’ll be stranger than the premise of her movie. After all, no voice (or “hybrid”) performance, no matter how enthusiastically praised – e.g., Robin Williams in Aladdin, Andy Serkis in Rise of the Planet of the Apes – has ever been nominated for an Academy Award.

Best Supporting Actress Oscar 2014: First Kenyan nominee?

In case our Best Supporting Actress Oscar 2014 predictions are on target, three of the nominees will be first-timers (Sally Hawkins, Lupita Nyong’o, June Squibb) while two have previously won Academy Awards (Jennifer Lawrence, Julia Roberts):

• Five years ago, potential Oscar newcomer Sally Hawkins was bypassed for her critically acclaimed and heavily buzzed performance in Mike Leigh’s Happy-Go-Lucky.
• Mexican-born Kenyan actress Lupita Nyong’o not only will become the first Kenyan acting nominee, but (to the best of our knowledge) the second African actress ever to be nominated for an Academy Award – following South African Charlize Theron (who won for Monster, 2003, and was nominated for North Country, 2005). Note: Glynis Johns, Best Supporting Actress nominee for The Sundowners (1960), was born in South Africa while her parents were touring that country, but she grew up in Wales.
• The 84-year-old June Squibb will become the fourth oldest acting nominee ever, after two previous Best Supporting Actress nominees – Titanic‘s 87-year-old Gloria Stuart and American Gangster‘s 85-year-old Ruby Dee – in addition to last year’s Emmanuelle Riva, who was 85 at the time she was nominated in the Best Actress category for her performance in Michael Haneke’s Amour. Note: Thanks to a commenter, we’ve corrected our info regarding oldest nominees in the acting categories. We previously had June Squibb trailing only Emmanuelle Riva. Reason for the mistake: although we checked every acting category, we inadvertently saw only the list of Best Supporting Actress Oscar winners. For the record, the oldest winner in that category is Peggy Ashcroft, who was 77 when she won for David Lean’s A Passage to India in early 1985.*
• Jennifer Lawrence will be receiving her third Oscar nod, and her first in the Best Supporting Actress category. Lawrence was shortlisted for Debra Granik’s Winter’s Bone (2010) and won for David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook (2012). If she wins for American Hustle, Lawrence will be making Oscar history: the first performer to win back-to-back Academy Awards – in two different acting categories. To date, only five performer have won consecutive Oscars: Best Actress Luise Rainer (The Great Ziegfeld, 1936; The Good Earth, 1937), who turns 104 (!) next January 12; Best Actor Spencer Tracy (Captains Courageous, 1937; Boys Town, 1938); Best Actress Katharine Hepburn (Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, 1967; The Lion in Winter, 1968 – shared with Barbra Streisand for Funny Girl), Best Supporting Actor Jason Robards (All the President’s Men, 1976; Julia, 1977); and Best Actor Tom Hanks (Philadelphia, 1993; Forrest Gump, 1994).
• Julia Roberts, for her part, will be getting her fourth Oscar nomination, and second Best Supporting Actress nod. Roberts was shortlisted as Best Supporting Actress for Herbert Ross’ Steel Magnolias (1989), and as Best Actress for Garry Marshall’s Pretty Woman (1990) and Steven Soderbergh’s Erin Brockovich (2000). She won for the Soderbergh film.

*As an aside, veteran Peggy Ashcroft (Romeo and Juliet, opposite Laurence Olivier and John Gielgud onstage; Alfred Hitchcock’s The 39 Steps) was absent from the 1985 Oscar ceremony. She canceled her appearance on the show to attend the funeral of Michael Redgrave, father of Best Actress nominee Vanessa Redgrave (The Bostonians). Ashcroft ultimately came down with the flu, and was thus unable to attend Redgrave’s funeral as well.

Likely Best Supporting Actress Oscar contender Jennifer Lawrence American Hustle photo: Columbia Pictures / Sony Pictures.

Leonardo DiCaprio ‘The Wolf of Wall Street’

Oscar Predictions: Best Picture & Best Director

We’re a little late this year (well, and last year [2013]) in publishing our 2014 Oscar predictions. After all, in two weeks the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences will be announcing the nominees for the 86th Academy Awards. Anyhow, as ancient philosophers used to say, “Better post (way, way) late Oscar predictions, than having them posted after the nominations have been announced.”

So, here they are, our 2014 Oscar Predictions in the first two categories, Best Picture and Best Director.

Note: The one difference between our Best Picture shortlist below and the Producers Guild of America nominations is Inside Llewyn Davis replacing Blue Jasmine. Also: bear in mind that the list below features ten titles; however, as few as five may end up nominated. Hence, our listing the 2014 Oscar predictions for Best Picture in order of importance. All other lists are in alphabetical order, including Best Picture runners-up and long shots.

Best Picture

12 Years a Slave; American Hustle; Gravity; Her; Nebraska; The Wolf of Wall Street; Captain Phillips; Inside Llewyn Davis; Saving Mr. Banks; Dallas Buyers Club.

Oscar 2014 Best Picture runners-up: August: Osage County; Blue Jasmine; The Butler; Fruitvale Station; Philomena.

Long shots: All Is Lost; Before Midnight; Blue Is the Warmest Color; Enough Said; Labor Day; Lone Survivor; Prisoners; Rush.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuarón, Gravity; Spike Jonze, Her; Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave; Alexander Payne, Nebraska; David O. Russell, American Hustle.

Oscar 2014 Best Director runners-up: Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis; Abdellatif Kechiche, Blue Is the Warmest Color; Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street.

Long shots: Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine; Peter Berg, Lone Survivor; J.C. Chandor, All Is Lost; Ryan Coogler, Fruitvale Station; Lee Daniels, The Butler; Asghar Farhadi, The Past; Stephen Frears, Philomena; Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips; John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks; Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said; Ron Howard, Rush; Richard Linklater, Before Midnight; Jason Reitman, Labor Day; Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club; Denis Villeneuve, Prisoners; Thomas Vinterberg, The Hunt; John Wells, August: Osage County.

If our Best Director Oscar 2014 predictions are on target, then two of the nominees will be newcomers in that category (Alfonso Cuarón and Steve McQueen). Spike Jonze has one previous nomination, for Being John Malkovich, 1999, while Alexander Payne and David O. Russell have been both shortlisted twice before: Payne for Sideways, 2004, and The Descendants, 2011; Russell for the mid-level box office hit The Fighter, 2010, and Silver Linings Playbook, 2012.

Also worth noting, Steve McQueen will be only the third black filmmaker – and the first black British filmmaker – shortlisted for Best Director, following John Singleton for Boyz n the Hood (1991) and Lee Daniels for Precious (2009). Alfonso Cuarón, for his part, will be the second Mexican filmmaker nominated for a Best Director Oscar, following Alejandro González Iñárritu for Babel (2006).

Leonardo DiCaprio The Wolf of Wall Street image: Paramount Pictures.

Robert Redford in ‘All Is Lost’

Best Actor Oscar Predictions: Robert Redford to Make the Cut?

The 2014 Academy Awards’ Best Actor field is overflowing with well-received performances by film veterans and super-veterans. No less than ten actors are found on our lists of nominees and immediate runners-up; that means our list of Best Actor “long shots” is all but meaningless, as, barring a miracle, there’s no chance for any of those actors to be shortlisted for an Oscar this year.

Note: Our list of likely Best Actor nominees matches four of the 2014 SAG Awards’ five nominees in that category. Now, it’s good to remember three things regarding the SAG Awards vs. the Academy Awards:

• The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences’ Actors Branch, about 1,100 members, tends to be more “elitist” (or “sophisticated”) than the Screen Actors Guild membership, about 120,000 strong, approximately 2,100 of which select the SAG Awards’ nominees. Just about anyone with three speaking roles to their credit and enough cash to pay SAG’s membership fees can become a SAG member, whereas only those invited by the Academy, usually (though not always) after years of renowned film work, can become Academy members.
• The SAG Awards and the Academy Awards have different voting rules. The latter uses the preferential voting system, which allows a minority of enthusiastic voters to have their pick shortlisted for the Oscars.
• Timing and the availability of early screeners is crucial for a nomination in any category.

Below are our 2014 Oscar predictions in the Best Actor category. The predicted nominees, runners-up, and long shots are all in alphabetical order.

Best Actor

Bruce Dern for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska; Chiwetel Ejiofor for Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave; Tom Hanks for Paul Greengrass’ Captain Phillips; Matthew McConaughey for Jean-Marc Vallée’s Dallas Buyers Club; Robert Redford for J.C. Chandor’s All Is Lost.

Oscar 2014 Best Actor runners-up: Christian Bale for David O. Russell’s American Hustle; Leonardo DiCaprio for Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street; Oscar Isaac for Joel and Ethan Coen’s Inside Llewyn Davis; Joaquin Phoenix for Spike Jonze’s Her; Forest Whitaker for Lee Daniels’ The Butler.

Long shots: Josh Brolin for Jason Reitman’s Labor Day; Idris Elba for Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom; Ethan Hawke for Before Midnight; Chris Hemsworth for Ron Howard’s Rush; Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhaal for Denis Villeneuve’s Prisoners; Michael B. Jordan for Fruitvale Station; Mads Mikkelsen for Thomas Vinterberg’s The Hunt; Daniel Radcliffe for John Krokida’s Kill Your Darlings; Tahar Rahim for Asghar Farhadi’s The Past / Le Passé; Mark Wahlberg for Lone Survivor.

Note: In our 2014 Oscar predictions, Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hanks would have been “long shots” for, respectively, Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby and John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks. However, if either DiCaprio or Hanks manages to be nominated for the 2014 Best Actor Oscar, it’ll be for, once again respectively, The Wolf of Wall Street and Captain Phillips. The Academy’s Actors Branch doesn’t allow double nominations in the acting categories.

Note Pt. 2: On our list of Oscar 2014 predictions, Robert Redford is the sole Best Actor nominee bypassed by the SAG Awards. In Redford’s place, SAG voters picked Forest Whitaker.

Best Actor 2014 Academy Awards: Oscar newcomers and longtime veterans

If our 2014 Oscar Best Actor predictions are on target, two actors will be Oscar newcomers: Chiwetel Ejiofor (who failed to be nominated for Stephen Frears’ Dirty Pretty Things in 2000) and Matthew McConaughey (who failed to be nominated in the Best Supporting Actor category last year for Steven Soderbergh’s Magic Mike).

The other three Best Actor nominees would be making Oscar comebacks after a long absence:

• Tom Hanks would be up for his sixth Best Actor Academy Award, following Penny Marshall’s Big (1988), Jonathan Demme’s Philadelphia (1993), Robert Zemeckis’ Forrest Gump (1994), Steven Spielberg’s Saving Private Ryan (1998), and Zemeckis’ Cast Away (2000). Hanks won for both Philadelphia and Forrest Gump, thus becoming only the fifth performer to win back-to-back Oscars, following Luise Rainer (The Great Ziegfeld, 1936; The Good Earth, 1937), Spencer Tracy (Captains Courageous, 1937; Boys Town, 1938), Katharine Hepburn (Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, 1967; The Lion in Winter, 1968 – shared with Barbra Streisand for Funny Girl), and Best Supporting Actor winner Jason Robards (All the President’s Men, 1976; Julia, 1977).
• Bruce Dern would be receiving his first ever Best Actor nomination, but his second in the acting categories. Thirty-five years ago, Dern was shortlisted in the Best Supporting Actor category for playing Jane Fonda’s Vietnam War veteran husband in Hal Ashby’s Coming Home. He lost to Christopher Walken for 1978’s other Vietnam War drama, Michael Cimino’s The Deer Hunter.
• And finally, Robert Redford, whose film career spans more than five decades, would be getting his second Best Actor Oscar nomination. Redford was first shortlisted 40 years ago, for George Roy Hill’s eventual Best Picture winner The Sting (1973), co-starring Paul Newman and Robert Shaw. He lost to Jack Lemmon for Save the Tiger. Additionally, Robert Redford has taken home a Best Director Oscar for the 1980 family drama Ordinary People, and 14 years later was nominated in that same category for Quiz Show, losing out to Forrest Gump‘s Robert Zemeckis. Best Picture nominee Quiz Show also earned Redford a nomination as one of the film’s producers, and he was handed an Honorary Oscar at the 2002 ceremony.

Robert Redford: Oscar near-record?

If Robert Redford does get nominated for the Best Actor 2014 Oscar, he’ll be almost breaking two records: oldest Best Actor nominee and longest gap between acting nominations. The current oldest Best Actor Oscar nominee is Richard Farnsworth, who was 79 when nominated for David Lynch’s The Straight Story (1999). Robert Redford and Bruce Dern are both 77; with Dern actually a couple of months older than Redford. So, 2014 may end up with two of the three oldest Best Actor nominees in Oscar history.

The record for longest gap between acting Oscar nominations belongs to Henry Fonda: 41 years, from John Ford’s The Grapes of Wrath (1940) to Mark Rydell’s On Golden Pond (1981). Fonda, 76 at the time of his nomination for On Golden Pond, is currently the second oldest Best Actor nominee and the very oldest Best Actor Oscar winner ever.

Robert Redford All Is Lost photo: Daniel Daza / Lionsgate Pictures.

Meryl Streep in ‘August: Osage County’

Best Actress 2014 Oscar Predictions: Meryl Streep to Break Another Record?

Compared to the vibrant Best Actor field, the 2014 Academy Awards’ Best Actress category looks somewhat anemic. Not in terms of quality, but in terms of quantity. Whereas ten actors could be called strong competitors for the Oscar 2014 shortlist, only five actresses can be considered truly strong candidates for this year’s Best Actress shortlist. Besides these five, there are three unlikely runners-up and a handful of long shots – and we mean “long” as in “light-years-away long.”

Note: Exact SAG Award and Academy Award matches are actually less common than you might think for the reasons mentioned in our previous Oscar 2014 predictions post (see link in the paragraph above). For instance, last year Marion Cotillard and Helen Mirren were both shortlisted for the Best Actress SAG Awards for, respectively, Jacques Audiard’s Rust and Bone and Sacha Gervasi’s Hitchcock, whereas at the Oscars Mirren and Cotillard were replaced by Emmanuelle Riva for Michael Haneke’s Amour and Quvenzhané Wallis for Benh Zeitlin’s Beasts of the Southern Wild.

The previous year, Tilda Swinton was a Best Actress SAG Award nominee for Lynne Ramsay’s We Need to Talk About Kevin, whereas the Academy went for Rooney Mara in David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. And the year before that, Hilary Swank was up for the Best Actress SAG Award for Tony Goldwyn’s Conviction, but the Academy’s Actors Branch voters opted for Michelle Williams in Derek Cianfrance’s Blue Valentine.

Having said all that, our 2014 Oscar predictions for the Best Actress category match all five of the SAG Awards’ nominees. The last time that happened was four years ago, when the nominees were Sandra Bullock, Meryl Streep, Gabourey Sidibe, Helen Mirren, and Carey Mulligan. Both Bullock and Streep should return this year. See below (all lists in alphabetical order).

Oscar 2014 Predictions: Best Actress

Cate Blanchett for Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine; Sandra Bullock for Alfonso Cuarón’s Gravity; Judi Dench for Stephen Frears’ Philomena; Meryl Streep for John Wells’ August: Osage County; Emma Thompson for John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks.

Runners-up: Amy Adams for David O. Russell’s American Hustle; Adèle Exarchopoulos for Abdellatif Kechiche’s Blue Is the Warmest Color; Kate Winslet for Jason Reitman’s Labor Day.

Long shots: Bérénice Bejo for Asghar Farhadi’s The Past / Le Passé; Julie Delpy for Richard Linklater’s Before Midnight; Julia-Louis Dreyfus for Enough Said; Greta Gerwig for Noah Baumbach’s Frances Ha; Brie Larson for Destin Daniel Cretton’s Short Term 12; Carey Mulligan for either Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby or Joel and Ethan Coen’s Inside Llewyn Davis.

Best Actress Oscar 2014: Academy to honor veteran actresses

If our Oscar 2014 Best Actress predictions are on target, the Academy’s Actors Branch will select five Academy Award veterans. In fact, all five likely Best Actress nominees have already taken home – at least – one Academy Award. Also worth noting, all five are over 40 years old.

• Cate Blanchett has five previous Oscar nominations: Best Actress for Shekhar Kapur’s Elizabeth (1998); Best Supporting Actress for Martin Scorsese’s The Aviator (2004), in which she played four-time Oscar winner Katharine Hepburn; Best Supporting Actress for Richard Eyre’s Notes on a Scandal (2006); Best Actress for Kapur’s Elizabeth: The Golden Age (2007); and Best Supporting Actress for Todd Haynes’ I’m Not There (2007), in which she played – sort of – Bob Dylan. Blanchett won for The Aviator.
• Sandra Bullock has one previous Oscar nomination, for John Lee Hancock’s 2009 blockbuster The Blind Side. Bullock became that year’s sentimental favorite, and ended up taking the home the Best Actress Oscar statuette.
• Judi Dench has six previous Oscar nominations: Best Actress for John Madden’s Mrs. Brown (1997); Best Supporting Actress for Madden’s Shakespeare in Love (1998) and Lasse Hallström’s Chocolat (2000); and Best Actress for Richard Eyre’s Iris (2001), Stephen Frears’ Mrs. Henderson Presents, and Eyre’s Notes on a Scandal (2006). Dench won for Shakespeare in Love. Note: Judi Dench and Cate Blanchett have twice been nominated in the same year (1998, 2006), but in different acting categories; if they’re both shortlisted this year, that’ll mark the first time they’ll be competing with one another.
• Meryl Streep has 17 previous Oscar nominations: Best Supporting Actress for Michael Cimino’s The Deer Hunter (1978) and Robert Benton’s Kramer vs. Kramer (1979); Best Actress for Karel Reisz’s The French Lieutenant’s Woman (1981), Alan J. Pakula’s Sophie’s Choice (1982), Mike Nichols’ Silkwood (1983), Sydney Pollack’s Out of Africa (1985), Hector Babenco’s Ironweed (1987), Fred Schepisi’s A Cry in the Dark (1988), Nichol’s Postcards from the Edge (1990), Clint Eastwood’s The Bridges of Madison County (1995), Carl Franklin’s One True Thing (1998), and Wes Craven’s Music of the Heart (1999); as Best Supporting Actress for Spike Jonze’s Adaptation (2002); and as Best Actress for David Frankel’s The Devil Wears Prada (2006), John Patrick Shanley’s Doubt (2008), Nora Ephron’s Julie & Julia (2009), and Phyllida Lloyd’s The Iron Lady (2011). Streep won Oscars for Kramer vs. Kramer, Sophie’s Choice, and The Iron Lady.
• Emma Thompson has four previous Oscar nominations in the acting categories: Best Actress for James Ivory’s Howards End (1992) and The Remains of the Day (1993); Best Supporting Actress for Jim Sheridan’s In the Name of the Father (1993); and Best Actress for Ang Lee’s Sense and Sensibility (1995). Thompson won for Howards End, and also took home an Oscar for her adaptation of Jane Austen’s novel Sense and Sensibility. If she does get nominated, Thompson will be returning to the Oscar fold after an 18-year absence.

Meryl Streep to break Oscar record?

In case Meryl Streep gets nominated for August: Osage County, she’ll be breaking the current Oscar record in the acting categories. Who holds that record? Huh … Meryl Streep herself: 17 nominations.

If Streep wins – which is highly unlikely, but never underestimate The Weinstein Company – she’ll be taking home her fourth Oscar statuette. In case that happens, she’ll tie with Katharine Hepburn as the top Oscar winner in the acting categories.

For the record, Hepburn’s Oscar wins – all in the Best Actress category – were for the following movies: Lowell Sherman’s Morning Glory (for the period 1932-33); Stanley Kramer’s Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner (1967); Anthony Harvey’s The Lion in Winter (1968), tied with Barbra Streisand for William Wyler’s Funny Girl; and Mark Rydell’s On Golden Pond (1981).

Meryl Streep August: Osage County image: The Weinstein Company.

Jared Leto in ‘Dallas Buyers Club’

Best Supporting Actor Oscar Predictions: Jared Leto vs. James Franco?

As explained in our previous Oscar 2014 predictions post, this year’s Academy Award nominations in the Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress categories initially looked impossible to predict. For Best Supporting Actor, Jared Leto was the front-runner for his performance as a transsexual with AIDS in Dallas Buyers Club, and Michael Fassbender was another strong possibility for his evil planter in 12 Years a Slave – but who else?

A couple of weeks ago, the SAG Award nominations helped to clarify things some, but, just as in the Best Supporting Actress category, there remains quite a bit of room for surprises and upsets. For instance, will the usually quite conservative Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences Actors Branch members dare to watch Harmony Korine’s Spring Breakers, featuring a tattooed, gold-toothed James Franco – winner of the 2013 Los Angeles Film Critics Association and the National Society of Film Critics’ Best Supporting Actor Award? Don’t bet on it. But then again, don’t bet against it either. It’s that iffy.

Note: Like our Best Actress Oscar 2014 predictions – but unlike our Best Actor and Best Supporting Actress predictions – our Oscar 2014 predictions in the Best Supporting Actor category are an exact match to the SAG Awards’ shortlist. The last time both the SAG Awards and the Academy Awards shared the exact list of Best Supporting Actor contenders was three years ago (Christian Bale, John Hawkes, Geoffrey Rush, Mark Ruffalo, and Jeremy Renner). See below (lists in alphabetical order).

Oscar Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Barkhad Abdi for Paul Greengrass’ Captain Phillips; Daniel Brühl for Ron Howard’s Rush; Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave; James Gandolfini for Nicole Holofcener’s Enough Said; Jared Leto for Jean-Marc Vallée’s Dallas Buyers Club.

Runners-up: Steve Coogan for Stephen Frears’ Philomena; Bradley Cooper for David O. Russell’s American Hustle; Will Forte for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska; James Franco for Harmony Korine’s Spring Breakers; Tom Hanks for John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks.

Long shots: George Clooney for Alfonso Cuarón’s Gravity; Chris Cooper for John Wells’ August: Osage County; Harrison Ford for Brian Helgeland’s 42; Paul Giamatti for 12 Years a Slave; Jonah Hill for Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street; Matthew McConaughey for Jeff Nichol’s Mud; Jeremy Renner for American Hustle.

Best Supporting Actor Oscar 2014: First Somali, third Spanish-born (and sixth German), and eighth posthumous nominees?

If our Oscar 2014 predictions for Best Supporting Actor are on target, all five actors will be first-time nominees.

• Bakhad Abdi will be the first Somali to be nominated for an Academy Award in the acting categories (or, likely, in any category). Abdi will also be one of the rare African-born actors to be nominated; previous acting nominees and/or winners include South African-born Welsh actress Glynis Johns (The Sundowners), Egyptian Omar Sharif (Lawrence of Arabia), and South African Charlize Theron (Monster, North Country). (Note: Best Actress Oscar winner Anna Magnani – The Rose Tattoo – was reportedly born in Italy, not Egypt as some have claimed. Also, this year’s likely Best Supporting Actress nominee, Kenyan performer Lupita Nyong’o, was actually born in Mexico.)
• If James Gandolfini is nominated, he’ll become the eighth performer to receive a posthumous Oscar nomination, following Jeanne Eagels (The Letter, 1928-29; no official nominations that year, but Eagels was “considered” for the award); James Dean (East of Eden, 1955; Giant, 1956); Spencer Tracy (Guess Who’s Coming to Dinner, 1967); Peter Finch (Network, 1976); Ralph Richardson (Greystoke: The Legend of Tarzan, Lord of the Apes, 1984); Massimo Troisi (The Postman / Il Postino, 1995); and Heath Ledger (The Dark Knight, 2008). Only Finch and Ledger won, the latter as Best Supporting Actor. Richardson was also nominated in the Best Supporting Actor category.
• If Daniel Brühl gets shortlisted, he’ll become only the third Spanish-born performer to receive Oscar recognition, following Javier Bardem (Before Night Falls, 2000; No Country for Old Men, 2007; Biutiful, 2010) and Penélope Cruz (Volver, 2006; Vicky Cristina Barcelona, 2008; Nine, 2009). Now, though Spanish-born (and fluent in Spanish), Daniel Brühl was raised in Germany – his mother is Spanish, but his father was a Brazilian-born German television director. Thus, if nominated Brühl will also become only the sixth German actor shortlisted for an Academy Award, following Emil Jannings (first Best Actor winner, for The Way of All Flesh and The Last Command, 1927-28), Marlene Dietrich (Morocco, 1930-31), Luise Rainer (The Great Ziegfeld, 1936; The Good Earth, 1937), Albert Bassermann (Foreign Correspondent, 1940), and Armin Mueller-Stahl (Shine, 1996). (Note: Vienna-born two-time Oscar winner Christoph Waltz – for Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds and Django Unchained – is half-German, and so is U.S.-born and -raised Sandra Bullock, Best Actress Oscar winner for John Lee Hancock’s The Blind Side.)
• And if Jared Leto does get a nomination, he won’t be the first gender-bending performer to do so. Previous such nominees include Jack Lemmon for Some Like It Hot (1959), Chris Sarandon for Dog Day Afternoon (1975), Julie Andrews for Victor Victoria (1982), John Lithgow for The World According to Garp (1982), Dustin Hoffman for Tootsie (1982), William Hurt for Kiss of the Spider Woman (1985), Jaye Davidson for The Crying Game (1992), Gwyneth Paltrow for Shakespeare in Love (1998), Hilary Swank for Boys Don’t Cry (1999), Felicity Huffman for Transamerica (2005), Cate Blanchett for I’m Not There (2007), and Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs (2011). Oscar winner Linda Hunt is a unique case: she actually played a man in Peter Weir’s 1983 political drama The Year of Living Dangerously. And it’s true that Marlene Dietrich sort of crosses the line here and there in Josef von Sternberg’s 1930 romantic melodrama Morocco, but tux or no, “lesbian kiss” or no, no one could perceive Dietrich’s character as anything but a woman.

Jared Leto Dallas Buyers Club photo: Focus Features.