SAG Awards: Solid but hardly flawless Oscar prognosticators & will Marion Cotillard lead French charge?
The Screen Actors Guild Awards – a.k.a. SAG Awards – 2013 nominations will be announced in the wee hours of the morning of Dec. 12. In the last two decades, the SAG Awards have been solid predictors of the Academy Awards – solid, but not flawless, as each year some SAG nominee or other is left out of the Oscar race.
Last year, for instance, there were three contenders for the SAG Awards who failed to get matching Academy Award nods: Leonardo DiCaprio (J. Edgar), Tilda Swinton (We Need to Talk About Kevin), and Armie Hammer (J. Edgar). Additionally, Best Cast SAG Award nominee Bridesmaids was nowhere to be found on the Academy Awards’ (lengthier) Best Picture roster.
Having said that, it’s always a good Oscar sign to be shortlisted for the SAG Awards. Two of last year’s notable absentees, Michael Fassbender (Shame) and Albert Brooks (Drive), were also absent from the Academy Awards’ list of nominated actors.
Also worth mentioning is that SAG Award voters may love several performances in one single film that, bizarrely (voting procedures may be at play here), fails to get a Best Cast nomination. A recent example: Jason Reitman’s Up in the Air, which earned nods for George Clooney, Vera Farmiga, and Anna Kendrick – but not for Best Cast.
In the end, Up in the Air and its director, Jason Reitman, were both nominated for the Oscars, along with its three awards-season-friendly cast members.
Critics faves not necessarily Screen Actors Guild faves
Here are a few more things to remember about the SAG Awards:
- Critics favorites don’t necessarily make the cut – e.g., last year’s Albert Brooks for Drive.
- Although SAG Award voters tend to ignore non-English-language films, this year things may be different. See further below.
- Benh Zeitlin’s Beasts of the Southern Wild, toplining child actress Quvenzhané Wallis, has been deemed ineligible for the 2013 SAG Awards*.
- Early and widely disseminated screeners are crucial for a movie’s SAG Award success. That was reportedly a key reason for Demián Bichir’s unexpected Best Actor nomination for Chris Weitz’s socially conscious drama A Better Life last year. That may also turn out to be the reason Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained may find trouble getting shortlisted this year.
* Beasts of the Southern Wild was made outside the provisions of the Screen Actors Guild’s contractual rules. That means not only the use of non-professional actors but also actors’ wages that fall below SAG’s stipulated minimum.
Made for a reported $1.8 million (not including marketing and distribution expenses), Beasts of the Southern Wild grossed $11.24 million at the North American box office.
The French are coming?
Michael Haneke’s French-language drama Amour is 2012’s The Artist (in terms of buzz) – minus The Weinstein Company’s awards-season machine. Last year, Michel Hazanavicius’ silent comedy-drama earned Jean Dujardin a surprising Best Actor SAG Award and Bérénice Bejo a Best Supporting Actress nod.
A Sony Pictures Classics release in the United States, Amour‘s potential SAG Award contenders are veterans Emmanuelle Riva, Jean-Louis Trintignant, and Isabelle Huppert.
If that weren’t all, Marion Cotillard is back in Jacques Audiard’s French-Belgian drama Rust and Bone / De rouille et d’os.
Leading ladies Emmanuelle Riva & Marion Cotillard have better chance
In all fairness, Trintignant (and, for that matter, Marion Cotillard’s Belgian leading man, Matthias Schoenaerts) haven’t been at all lucky this awards season on the western side of the North Atlantic. The same goes for Amour‘s supporting player Huppert.
The Rust and Bone and Amour leading ladies, however, have been getting some recognition, particularly Emmanuelle Riva, who, somewhat surprisingly, has turned out to be one of the favorite picks of U.S.-based critics groups.
Cotillard, for her part, has one key advantage: she’s a known quantity in the U.S., having already received a SAG Award nomination and taken home a Best Actress Academy Award for her performance as Edith Piaf in Olivier Dahan’s La Vie en Rose (2007). Besides, she has been featured in major English-language productions such as Rob Marshall’s Nine, Christopher Nolan’s Inception, Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris, and, earlier this year, Nolan’s The Dark Knight Rises.
That could mean a strong French presence at the SAG Awards. In fact, if all four (or five?) Amour and Rust and Bone leads are shortlisted, it would mean the strongest “not in the English language” presence in the awards’ 19-year history.
Update: “It would,” but it didn’t. However absurdly, Amour was totally bypassed. Cotillard did, however, get shortlisted for Rust and Bone. Below is the list of the 2013 SAG Awards’ winners and nominees.
See further below our halfway off-the-mark SAG Award predictions. See also: 2013 SAG Award winners.
SAG Awards: Winners & nominations
Best Cast in a Motion Picture
Sacha Baron Cohen.
Helena Bonham Carter.
Tommy Lee Jones.
Silver Linings Playbook
Robert De Niro.
Screen Actors Guild Life Achievement Award: Dick Van Dyke.
Best Actor in a Television Movie or Miniseries
* Kevin Costner, Hatfields & McCoys.
Woody Harrelson, Game Change.
Ed Harris, Game Change.
Clive Owen, Hemingway & Gellhorn.
Bill Paxton, Hatfields & McCoys.
Best Actress in a Television Movie or Miniseries
* Julianne Moore, Game Change.
Nicole Kidman, Hemingway & Gellhorn.
Charlotte Rampling, Restless.
Sigourney Weaver, Political Animals.
Alfre Woodard, Steel Magnolias.
Best Actor in a Drama Series
* Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad.
Steve Buscemi, Boardwalk Empire.
Jeff Daniels, The Newsroom.
Jon Hamm, Mad Men.
Damian Lewis, Homeland.
Best Actor in a Comedy Series
* Alec Baldwin, 30 Rock.
Ty Burrell, Modern Family.
Louis C.K., Louie.
Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory.
Eric Stonestreet, Modern Family.
Best Ensemble in a Drama Series
* Downton Abbey
Jessica Brown Findlay.
Meg Chambers Steedle.
Steven Michael Quezada.
Best Ensemble in a Comedy Series
* Modern Family
Jesse Tyler Ferguson.
The Big Bang Theory
Harry Shum Jr.
Anna Deavere Smith.
Leslie David Baker.
Best Stunt Ensemble in a Television Series
* Game of Thrones.
Sons of Anarchy.
The Walking Dead.
SAG Awards predictions: From Leonardo DiCaprio to Emmanuelle Riva
After realizing that Marcel Carné’s beautifully acted Children of Paradise / Les Enfants du Paradis is ineligible for this year’s SAG Awards (it was first released in 1945, which means the French presence this year won’t be as strong as it could have been), we’ve reworked our predictions below.
Several French, British, and Australian performers, Meryl Streep, Leonardo DiCaprio, Helen Hunt; and several Silver Linings Playbook, Lincoln, The Master, and (non-French) Les Misérables cast members are all strong possibilities for the SAG Awards 2013.
Below are our predictions in the Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Cast (film) categories, including a number of potential surprises.
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty.
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone.
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook.
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour.
Meryl Streep, Hope Springs.
Other Best Actress possibilities:
Naomi Watts, The Impossible.
Judi Dench, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea.
Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina.
Laura Linney, Hyde Park on the Hudson.
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook.
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln.
Hugh Jackman, Les Misérables.
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master.
Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour.
Other Best Actor possibilities:
Denzel Washington, Flight.
John Hawkes, The Sessions.
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock.
Richard Gere, Arbitrage.
† Pattinson’s fellow limo movie actor Denis Lavant has no chance as Leos Carax’s Holy Motors was not submitted for consideration.
Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams, The Master.
Sally Field, Lincoln.
Anne Hathaway, Les Misérables.
Helen Hunt, The Sessions.
Amanda Seyfried, Les Misérables.
Other Best Supporting Actress possibilities:
Susan Sarandon, Arbitrage.
Ann Dowd, Compliance.
Rosemarie DeWitt, Your Sister’s Sister.
Kristen Stewart, On the Road.
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook.
Nothing is impossible:
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy.
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
Penélope Cruz, To Rome with Love.
Best Supporting Actor
Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained.
Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master.
Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln.
Michael Peña, End of Watch.
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained.
Other Best Supporting Actor possibilities:
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook.
Javier Bardem, Skyfall.
Alan Arkin & John Goodman, Argo.
Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike.
Nothing is impossible:
Tom Hiddleston, The Avengers.
Tom Cruise, Rock for Ages.
Michael Fassbender, Prometheus.
Other Best Cast possibilities:
The Dark Knight Rises.
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel.
Nothing is impossible:
To Rome with Love.
SAG Awards website.
Marion Cotillard Rust and Bone image: UGC Distribution / StudioCanal.
Image of eventual 2013 SAG Awards winner Jennifer Lawrence Silver Linings Playbook: The Weinstein Company.
Image of eventual 2013 SAG Awards winner Tommy Lee Jones as Thaddeus Stevens in Lincoln: DreamWorks Pictures / 20th Century Fox.
“SAG Awards: Marion Cotillard to Lead French Charge? + Jennifer Lawrence Among Possible Contenders” last updated in August 2018.