The Lorax Hit + Jennifer Aniston-Paul Rudd Bomb

Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax with Ted (Zac Efron), Audrey (Taylor Swift)

March 4 update: Partly thanks to 3D ticket surcharges – and the fact that five- and ten-year-olds can’t go to the movies on their own – the Universal release Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax collected $70.7 million in North America this weekend, March 2-4, according to studio estimates found at Box Office Mojo. That’s about $10–$20 million more than most had been expecting.

That’s the third-best March opening ever – if you choose to pretend that inflation and 3D surcharges don’t exist. In terms of actual attendance figures, The Lorax is behind not only Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland and Zack Snyder’s 300, but also Carlos Saldanha’s Ice Age: The Meltdown, and quite probably Snyder’s Watchmen and the original Ice Age.

Among animated films, The Lorax had the fourth-biggest debut ever in non-adjusted dollar amounts. In terms of attendance, it’s behind not only Shrek the Third, Shrek 2, Toy Story 3, Shrek Forever After, and The Simpsons Movie ($74 million in 2007), but also The Incredibles, Finding Nemo, Up, Ice Age: The Meltdown, the original Ice Age, and The Lion King, among several others.

Anyhow, The Lorax‘s opening is indeed the best at the domestic box office since the Robert Pattinson-Kristen Stewart-Taylor Lautner blockbuster The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 last November. Chris Renaud and Kyle Balda’s animated feature has also easily surpassed The Vow‘s $41.2 million debut weekend to become the biggest “opener” of 2012.

Now, two things:

• a) in terms of ticket sales, on opening weekend The Lorax ended up about 25 percent (quite a bit more than I expected) ahead of the Rachel McAdams-Channing Tatum romantic drama, as The Vow is not in 3D
• b) The Lorax may not hold 2012’s weekend-debut record for long, as Gary Ross’ The Hunger Games, starring Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, and Liam Hemsworth, opens in about three weeks. John Carter opens next week, but some are expecting Andrew Stanton’s first live-action feature to land with a thud. We’ll see.

Based on the 1971 book, The Lorax was reportedly budgeted at $70 million, not including marketing and distribution expenses. Reviews have been at best mediocre: The Lorax has a 50 percent approval rating among Rotten Tomatoes‘ top critics. The animated film features the voices of Danny DeVito, Zac Efron, Taylor Swift, Betty White, and Ed Helms.

For comparison’s sake: Carlos Saldanha’s Rio opened with $39.2 million last April. Feature the voice of A-lister Johnny Depp, Gore Verbinski’s eventual Oscar winner Rango took in $38.1 million in March 2011. Another March release, Dean DuBlois and Chris Sanders’ How to Train Your Dragon, debuted with $43.7 million in 2010.

Another Dr. Seuss tale, Horton Hears a Who!, opened with $45 million in 2008 (about $50 million today), while the non-3D live-action The Cat in the Hat, starring Mike Myers, debuted with $38.3 million in 2003 (also about $50 million today) and How the Grinch Stole Christmas, starring Jim Carrey, with $55.1 million in 2000 (about $80 million today).

Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax picture: Universal Pictures | Illumination Entertainment.

At no. 2 in North America this weekend, March 2–4, the R-rated comedy Project X grossed a better-than-expected $20.8 million, including $1.2 million from Thursday midnight screenings, according to studio estimates. Most predictions had the sex comedy reaching the high teens on its first weekend.

Produced by The Hangover‘s Todd Phillips and directed by feature-film first-timer Nima Nourizadeh, Project X features Thomas Mann, Oliver Cooper, and Jonathan Daniel Brown. Revolving around found video footage and a “wild party,” Project X was made for a reported $12 million, though it’s unclear how much distributor Warner Bros. spent marketing it. Either way, reviewers didn’t find Nourizadeh’s party wild enough, as the film’s approval rating among Rotten Tomatoes‘ top critics is a dismal 26 percent.

At no. 3 was last weekend’s no. 1 movie, Mike McCoy and Scott Waugh’s Act of Valor. The flag-waving actioner brought in $13.7 million, down 44 percent. Though Friday grosses indicated something closer to $11-$12 million for the weekend, Act of Valor surged on Saturday.

The film’s total after ten days is $45.23 million. That’s not unimpressive for February release with no stars, but it’s considerably less impressive when factoring in that Relativity reportedly paid $13 million to acquire the film and committed $30 million to marketing and distribution expenses. Considering Act of Valor‘s theme and its lack of marquee names, overseas prospects don’t look all that great. We’ll see.

At no. 4, the Ryan Reynolds-Denzel Washington actioner Safe House added $7.2 million (down 34 percent), cuming at $108.2 million. That’s not bad at all, except for the fact that the Universal release cost a reported $85 million, not including marketing/distribution expenses. Overseas, Safe House has grossed a so-so $46.7 million to date, even though it has already opened in most major territories. Remember, studios keep about 50-55 percent of a film’s domestic gross and about 40 percent of international grosses.

Though considered a major box office draw in the United States, within the last decade only one Denzel Washington movie has earned more than $100 million in North America (including Canada). That was Ridley Scott’s American Gangster, co-starring Russell Crowe, which took in $130.16 million in late 2007. If inflation is taken into account, Washington has only one more over-$100 million hit since 2002: Spike Lee’s heist thriller Inside Man (with about $107 million in 2012 dollars), which came out in 2006.

Directed by Daniel Espinosa, Safe House also features Vera Farmiga, Brendan Gleeson, Sam Shepard, and Rubén Blades.

Denzel Washington / Safe House photo: Universal Pictures.

The Ryan Reynolds / Denzel Washington thriller Safe House was closely followed Tyler Perry’s Good Deeds with $7 million – down a whopping 55 percent on its second weekend out – at no. 5.

At no. 7, Rachel McAdams / Channing Tatum’s The Vow scored $6.1 million. Cuming at $111.71 million, that means Michael Sucsy’s romantic drama has become Rachel McAdams’ biggest personal box office hit – i.e., excluding the Robert Downey Jr & Jude Law Sherlock Holmes movies and the Vince Vaughn & Owen Wilson comedy Wedding Crashers.

A while back, The Vow surpassed both The Time Traveler’s Wife (2009) and Red Eye (2005), and from the get-go it was far ahead of Morning Glory (2010). Without adjusting for inflation, The Vow surpassed the total take of Mean Girls (2004) and The Notebook (2004) a couple of weeks ago.

But in number of ticket sales, The Vow forged ahead of The Notebook ($103.5 million in 2012 dollars) only last week, while it surpassed Mean Girls ($109 million in 2012 dollars) just this weekend. Overseas, The Vow has been performing much more modestly. Its cume a week ago was $30.8 million.

The Vow apparently has been following the pattern of McAdams’ previous romantic box office hit in North America, The Notebook. Nick Cassavetes’ melodrama about love and memory loss co-starring Ryan Gosling, James Garner, and Gena Rowlands, generated $81 million in grosses in the U.S. and Canada, but a mere $34.6 million elsewhere.

Budgeted at $30 million (not including marketing / distribution expenses), The Vow also features American Horror Story‘s two-time Oscar winner Jessica Lange (Tootsie, Blue Sky) and The Piano‘s Sam Neill.

Jennifer Aniston’s recent domestic movie grosses: Horrible Bosses $117.5 million; Just Go with It, co-starring Adam Sandler, $103 million*; The Switch, with Jason Bateman, $27 million; The Bounty Hunter, with Gerard Butler, $67 million; Love Happens, with Aaron Eckhart, $22.9 million; He’s Just Not That into You, with Bradley Cooper and Drew Barrymore, $93.9 million; Marley & Me, with Owen Wilson, $143.1 million; The Break-Up, with Vince Vaughn, $118.7 million. Aniston clearly can’t carry a movie on her own. The more popular her co-star(s), the better the chance of her movies becoming domestic (and international) hits.

March 3 p.m.

Boosted by 3D ticket surcharges, the Universal release Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax collected an estimated $17.4 million in North America on Friday, March 2, according to studio estimates.

That’s the best domestic opening since the Robert Pattinson-Kristen Stewart-Taylor Lautner blockbuster The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn – Part 1 last November. Among animated films, The Lorax‘s Friday debut was the best since Cars 2 last summer. Needless to say, the animated feature directed by Despicable Me‘s Chris Renaud and co-directed by Kyle Balda will easily surpass The Vow‘s $41.2 million debut weekend, thus raising the bar for the year’s biggest weekend debut.

Now, two things:

• a) in terms of ticket sales, on opening weekend The Lorax should end up only slightly ahead of the Rachel McAdams-Channing Tatum romantic drama, as The Vow is not in 3D
• b) The Lorax shouldn’t hold 2012’s weekend-debut record for long, as Gary Ross’ The Hunger Games, starring Jennifer Lawrence, Josh Hutcherson, and Liam Hemsworth, opens in about three weeks.

Based on the 1971 book, The Lorax was reportedly budgeted at $70 million, not including marketing and distribution expenses. Reviews have been mediocre: The Lorax has a 50 percent approval rating among Rotten Tomatoes’ top critics. The animated film features the voices of Danny DeVito, Zac Efron, Taylor Swift, Betty White, and Ed Helms.

For comparison’s sake: Carlos Saldanha’s Rio opened with $39.2 million last April. Feature the voice of A-lister Johnny Depp, Gore Verbinski’s eventual Oscar winner Rango took in $38.1 million in March 2011. Another March release, Dean DuBlois and Chris Sanders’ How to Train Your Dragon, debuted with $43.7 million in 2010.

Another Dr. Seuss tale, Horton Hears a Who!, opened with $45. million in 2008 (about $50 million today), while the non-3D live-action The Cat in the Hat, starring Mike Myers, debuted with $38.3 million in 2003 (also about $50 million today) and How the Grinch Stole Christmas, starring Jim Carrey, with $55.1 million in 2000 (about $80 million today).

March 3 early morning

Boosted by 3D ticket surcharges, Universal’s Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax is expected to gross around $55 million this weekend in North America if early Friday estimates – around $16 million – found in Variety are accurate. If so, The Lorax would be the latest 2012 release to surpass some pundits’ predictions, though Box Office Mojo’s Ray Subers had been expecting an opening of $53.5 million. Also, the animated feature will easily surpass The Vow‘s $41.2 million debut weekend, though it should be only slightly ahead in terms of ticket sales.

Directed by Chris Renaud and co-directed by Kyle Balda, The Lorax features the voices of Danny DeVito, Zac Efron, Taylor Swift, Betty White, and Ed Helms. It’s worth noting that Renaud’s previous 3D animated feature distributed by Universal, Despicable Me (which he co-directed with Pierre Coffin), was a much bigger-than-expected hit when it opened in summer 2010; Despicable Me went on to gross $543.1 million worldwide.

Dr. Seuss’ The Lorax image: Universal Pictures.